--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\data\RRP-APSR-Replication-2017-04-04\RRP-APSR-ReplicationCode-Supp-2017-04-04.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   4 Apr 2017, 23:15:29

. 
. clear

. clear matrix

. set more off

. 
. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************
. *
. * Reese, Ruby and Pape 
. *
. * "Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence"
. *
. * Online Supplementary Appendix Replication Code
. * 
. * April 4, 2017
. *
. ****************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************
. * Supplementary Table 1
. ****************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. **Afghanistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-AFG.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 1
. nbreg ctwits drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     14,610
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      12.04
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0072
Log pseudolikelihood = -17993.337               Pseudo R2         =     0.0007

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.2088658   .0652594    -3.20   0.001    -.3367719   -.0809597
     drelnph |  -.0882172   .0431379    -2.05   0.041    -.1727659   -.0036684
      dsecph |   .0884741   .1318516     0.67   0.502    -.1699503    .3468984
       _cons |  -.1105734    .028933    -3.82   0.000     -.167281   -.0538657
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   .8397766   .0373262                      .7666186    .9129347
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |    2.31585    .086442                      2.152475    2.491624
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 2
. nbreg ctgtd drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     20,090
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      38.21
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -15725.624               Pseudo R2         =     0.0013

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.2962495   .0486286    -6.09   0.000    -.3915598   -.2009392
     drelnph |  -.0452452   .0367029    -1.23   0.218    -.1171815    .0266912
      dsecph |  -.0251743   .1408719    -0.18   0.858    -.3012782    .2509296
       _cons |   -.937891   .0255612   -36.69   0.000    -.9879901   -.8877919
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   .8530071   .0399488                       .774709    .9313052
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   2.346693   .0937475                      2.169961    2.537819
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 3
. nbreg ctsigact drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2008 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     12,785
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      40.77
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood =  -43810.69               Pseudo R2         =     0.0004

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
    ctsigact |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.0379799   .0339606    -1.12   0.263    -.1045414    .0285816
     drelnph |   .1451611   .0265871     5.46   0.000     .0930514    .1972708
      dsecph |   .0469157   .1019423     0.46   0.645    -.1528875    .2467189
       _cons |    2.47078   .0181523   136.11   0.000     2.435202    2.506358
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   .6996894   .0119021                      .6763616    .7230172
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   2.013127   .0239605                      1.966709    2.060641
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Iraq Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-IRQ.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 4
. nbreg ctwits drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     52,596
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =     212.30
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -47363.688               Pseudo R2         =     0.0021

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4772304   .0331363   -14.40   0.000    -.5421763   -.4122845
     drelnph |  -.0629631    .024597    -2.56   0.010    -.1111723   -.0147538
      dsecph |  -.0438526   .0319106    -1.37   0.169    -.1063962    .0186911
       _cons |  -.5459895   .0170035   -32.11   0.000    -.5793158   -.5126632
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   1.512728   .0151811                      1.482974    1.542483
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   4.539097   .0689085                      4.406028    4.676185
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 5
. nbreg ctgtd drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     72,324
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      96.64
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -36446.184               Pseudo R2         =     0.0015

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.3849205   .0435708    -8.83   0.000    -.4703177   -.2995232
     drelnph |     .02838   .0308984     0.92   0.358    -.0321797    .0889397
      dsecph |   .0285493   .0408391     0.70   0.485    -.0514939    .1085925
       _cons |  -1.493844   .0211585   -70.60   0.000    -1.535314   -1.452374
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   2.127698   .0202399                      2.088029    2.167368
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |    8.39552   .1699245                      8.068994     8.73526
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 6
. nbreg ctibc drelph drelnph dsecph if (gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2008) | (gyear==2009 & gnummnth<=6), robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     36,144
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      78.09
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -32108.754               Pseudo R2         =     0.0014

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctibc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.3822338   .0453292    -8.43   0.000    -.4710774   -.2933902
     drelnph |  -.0026856   .0349392    -0.08   0.939    -.0711652    .0657939
      dsecph |  -.0327131   .0440817    -0.74   0.458    -.1191116    .0536854
       _cons |  -.5717963   .0232255   -24.62   0.000    -.6173174   -.5262753
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   1.619617   .0204409                      1.579553     1.65968
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   5.051154     .10325                      4.852788    5.257629
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Pakistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-PAK.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 7
. nbreg ctwits drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     23,376
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      12.83
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0050
Log pseudolikelihood = -17344.814               Pseudo R2         =     0.0004

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4593502    .129005    -3.56   0.000    -.7121953   -.2065051
     drelnph |  -.0290255   .0344582    -0.84   0.400    -.0965622    .0385113
      dsecph |  -.0052433   .0463496    -0.11   0.910    -.0960869    .0856002
       _cons |  -1.002539   .0259511   -38.63   0.000    -1.053402   -.9516755
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   1.413797   .0272769                      1.360336    1.467259
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   4.111539     .11215                      3.897501    4.337331
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 8
. nbreg ctgtd drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     32,144
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      16.93
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0007
Log pseudolikelihood = -20942.432               Pseudo R2         =     0.0005

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4628097   .1284354    -3.60   0.000    -.7145385   -.2110809
     drelnph |  -.0675898     .03286    -2.06   0.040    -.1319943   -.0031853
      dsecph |  -.0599475     .04406    -1.36   0.174    -.1463036    .0264086
       _cons |  -1.170964   .0249663   -46.90   0.000    -1.219897   -1.122031
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   1.579009   .0264981                      1.527074    1.630945
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   4.850149   .1285199                      4.604684    5.108699
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 9
. nbreg ctpips drelph drelnph dsecph if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     32,144
                                                Wald chi2(3)      =      43.01
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -32234.338               Pseudo R2         =     0.0007

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctpips |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |   -.614881   .0953665    -6.45   0.000    -.8017958   -.4279662
     drelnph |  -.0097398   .0235774    -0.41   0.680    -.0559508    .0364711
      dsecph |   .0353934   .0315141     1.12   0.261     -.026373    .0971598
       _cons |  -.5120678   .0177486   -28.85   0.000    -.5468543   -.4772813
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   1.188623    .017691                      1.153949    1.223297
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   3.282558   .0580717                       3.17069    3.398373
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************
. * Supplementary Table 2
. ****************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. **Afghanistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-AFG.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 1
. logit dwits drelph drelnph dsecph afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinac
> tlg drcid2-drcid5 d2005-d2011 dayid witspdys witspdys2 witspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust nolog

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     14,605
                                                Wald chi2(27)     =    2942.50
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -7082.9879               Pseudo R2         =     0.2702

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |   -.242986   .0593821    -4.09   0.000    -.3593728   -.1265991
     drelnph |  -.0109689   .0503757    -0.22   0.828    -.1097035    .0877657
      dsecph |   .0834894   .1786134     0.47   0.640    -.2665865    .4335654
  afgelect30 |   .2927211   .0990794     2.95   0.003     .0985291    .4869132
   uselect30 |  -.0761787   .1171612    -0.65   0.516    -.3058105    .1534531
    oilprice |  -.0024498   .0023205    -1.06   0.291    -.0069979    .0020983
  grainindex |   .0000767   .0011403     0.07   0.946    -.0021583    .0023117
        temp |   .0207733   .0035316     5.88   0.000     .0138514    .0276952
        wesd |   -.021958   .0052499    -4.18   0.000    -.0322475   -.0116684
      precip |  -.0329656   .0097296    -3.39   0.001    -.0520353   -.0138958
     tcloudc |  -.0009894   .0011222    -0.88   0.378    -.0031889    .0012101
 ctcoinactlg |   .0073314   .0035711     2.05   0.040     .0003321    .0143306
      drcid2 |   3.100223   .0937874    33.06   0.000     2.916403    3.284043
      drcid3 |   1.451035   .0857956    16.91   0.000     1.282879    1.619191
      drcid4 |   2.635972   .1029377    25.61   0.000     2.434217    2.837726
      drcid5 |   1.179701   .0818917    14.41   0.000     1.019196    1.340205
       d2005 |   1.205832   .1550626     7.78   0.000     .9019145    1.509749
       d2006 |   2.026125   .2182062     9.29   0.000     1.598449    2.453801
       d2007 |   2.102454   .2943585     7.14   0.000     1.525522    2.679386
       d2008 |   2.217833    .386136     5.74   0.000      1.46102    2.974645
       d2009 |   2.838206   .4671737     6.08   0.000     1.922563     3.75385
       d2010 |   3.134549   .5475114     5.73   0.000     2.061446    4.207652
       d2011 |    2.98741   .6436129     4.64   0.000     1.725952    4.248868
       dayid |    .000128   .0002476     0.52   0.605    -.0003573    .0006133
    witspdys |  -.0490989    .011561    -4.25   0.000     -.071758   -.0264397
   witspdys2 |   .0011546   .0005304     2.18   0.029     .0001151    .0021941
   witspdys3 |  -6.28e-06   4.95e-06    -1.27   0.204     -.000016    3.42e-06
       _cons |  -4.493254   .2161736   -20.79   0.000    -4.916947   -4.069562
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 2
. logit dgtd drelph drelnph dsecph afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinact
> lg drcid2-drcid5 d2005-d2014 dayid gtdpdys gtdpdys2 gtdpdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     20,085
                                                Wald chi2(30)     =    3169.51
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -8567.9395               Pseudo R2         =     0.2157

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.3231979   .0567905    -5.69   0.000    -.4345052   -.2118906
     drelnph |   -.007146   .0452794    -0.16   0.875    -.0958921       .0816
      dsecph |    .020981   .1653474     0.13   0.899    -.3030939     .345056
  afgelect30 |   .2902279   .1074503     2.70   0.007     .0796293    .5008266
   uselect30 |  -.0667497    .096585    -0.69   0.490    -.2560527    .1225534
    oilprice |    .001774   .0019252     0.92   0.357    -.0019993    .0055473
  grainindex |  -.0029357   .0010062    -2.92   0.004    -.0049079   -.0009636
        temp |   .0172504   .0030134     5.72   0.000     .0113443    .0231565
        wesd |  -.0175055   .0047785    -3.66   0.000    -.0268712   -.0081397
      precip |  -.0186867   .0083153    -2.25   0.025    -.0349843   -.0023891
     tcloudc |  -.0000574   .0010449    -0.05   0.956    -.0021055    .0019906
 ctcoinactlg |   .0037757   .0025974     1.45   0.146    -.0013152    .0088666
      drcid2 |   2.089109   .0779937    26.79   0.000     1.936245    2.241974
      drcid3 |   .9691642   .0766064    12.65   0.000     .8190183     1.11931
      drcid4 |    1.73798   .0790371    21.99   0.000      1.58307     1.89289
      drcid5 |   .6971325    .076817     9.08   0.000     .5465739    .8476911
       d2005 |   .4685414   .1768646     2.65   0.008     .1218932    .8151896
       d2006 |   .9909508   .2288867     4.33   0.000     .5423411    1.439561
       d2007 |   1.253914   .2969773     4.22   0.000     .6718494    1.835979
       d2008 |   1.681019   .3939995     4.27   0.000     .9087945    2.453244
       d2009 |   1.763845   .4555738     3.87   0.000     .8709363    2.656753
       d2010 |   1.677407   .5356882     3.13   0.002     .6274779    2.727337
       d2011 |   1.663266   .6344605     2.62   0.009     .4197464    2.906786
       d2012 |   3.139387   .7200109     4.36   0.000     1.728191    4.550582
       d2013 |   3.044595    .801562     3.80   0.000     1.473562    4.615628
       d2014 |   3.344233   .8811801     3.80   0.000     1.617151    5.071314
       dayid |   1.31e-06   .0002348     0.01   0.996    -.0004588    .0004614
     gtdpdys |  -.0335395   .0061863    -5.42   0.000    -.0456644   -.0214147
    gtdpdys2 |    .000391   .0001443     2.71   0.007     .0001081    .0006739
    gtdpdys3 |  -1.27e-06   7.27e-07    -1.74   0.081    -2.69e-06    1.57e-07
       _cons |  -3.816789   .2041007   -18.70   0.000    -4.216819   -3.416759
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 3
. logit dsigact drelph drelnph dsecph afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoin
> actlg drcid2-drcid5 d2009-d2014 dayid sigactpdys sigactpdys2 sigactpdys3 if gyear>=2008 & gyear<=2014, robus
> t nolog
note: drcid4 != 0 predicts success perfectly
      drcid4 dropped and 2556 obs not used


Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     10,224
                                                Wald chi2(25)     =    1846.54
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -3423.3534               Pseudo R2         =     0.3801

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     dsigact |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.2893917   .0868527    -3.33   0.001    -.4596199   -.1191634
     drelnph |  -.0520071   .0780576    -0.67   0.505    -.2049972     .100983
      dsecph |  -.0244233   .2585354    -0.09   0.925    -.5311434    .4822969
  afgelect30 |   .1507703    .164467     0.92   0.359    -.1715791    .4731196
   uselect30 |   .0385216   .1504664     0.26   0.798    -.2563871    .3334302
    oilprice |  -.0028632   .0028239    -1.01   0.311     -.008398    .0026715
  grainindex |   .0001628   .0014682     0.11   0.912    -.0027148    .0030404
        temp |   .0431157   .0049106     8.78   0.000     .0334912    .0527403
        wesd |  -.0005932   .0059487    -0.10   0.921    -.0122524     .011066
      precip |  -.0240726   .0101505    -2.37   0.018    -.0439673   -.0041779
     tcloudc |  -.0033978   .0016053    -2.12   0.034    -.0065442   -.0002514
 ctcoinactlg |   .0342578    .018119     1.89   0.059    -.0012548    .0697704
      drcid2 |   7.708818   .5790737    13.31   0.000     6.573854    8.843781
      drcid3 |   2.299249   .0878519    26.17   0.000     2.127063    2.471436
      drcid4 |          0  (omitted)
      drcid5 |   2.580293   .0911645    28.30   0.000     2.401614    2.758972
       d2009 |  -.1698712   .1832986    -0.93   0.354    -.5291299    .1893875
       d2010 |  -.6074534   .2767058    -2.20   0.028    -1.149787   -.0651201
       d2011 |  -1.284959    .409007    -3.14   0.002    -2.086598   -.4833199
       d2012 |  -1.970742   .5388787    -3.66   0.000    -3.026925   -.9145594
       d2013 |  -2.328865   .6679813    -3.49   0.000    -3.638085   -1.019646
       d2014 |  -2.951279   .7945178    -3.71   0.000    -4.508505   -1.394053
       dayid |   .0025482   .0003635     7.01   0.000     .0018357    .0032608
  sigactpdys |  -.1616626   .0520457    -3.11   0.002    -.2636702   -.0596549
 sigactpdys2 |   .0161018   .0100765     1.60   0.110    -.0036478    .0358513
 sigactpdys3 |  -.0003789   .0004376    -0.87   0.387    -.0012366    .0004789
       _cons |  -6.193289   .7491501    -8.27   0.000    -7.661596   -4.724982
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Iraq Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-IRQ.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 4
. logit dwits drelph drelnph dsecph irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinac
> tlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2011 dayid witspdys witspdys2 witspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust n
> olog

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     52,578
                                                Wald chi2(40)     =   10446.54
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -17020.329               Pseudo R2         =     0.4061

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4755237   .0417326   -11.39   0.000     -.557318   -.3937293
     drelnph |   .0117914   .0321783     0.37   0.714     -.051277    .0748598
      dsecph |  -.0767983   .0376024    -2.04   0.041    -.1504977   -.0030989
  irqelect30 |   .0874489   .0746551     1.17   0.241    -.0588724    .2337701
   uselect30 |   .1355424   .0738932     1.83   0.067    -.0092856    .2803704
    oilprice |   .0074587   .0015453     4.83   0.000     .0044299    .0104875
  grainindex |  -.0037551   .0007614    -4.93   0.000    -.0052475   -.0022627
        temp |   .0018854   .0016609     1.14   0.256    -.0013699    .0051408
        wesd |  -.0019836   .0128375    -0.15   0.877    -.0271446    .0231774
      precip |  -.0027787   .0043927    -0.63   0.527    -.0113883    .0058309
     tcloudc |  -.0017387   .0007378    -2.36   0.018    -.0031847   -.0002927
 ctcoinactlg |  -.0105063   .0044205    -2.38   0.017    -.0191704   -.0018423
    dprovid2 |  -.2446068   .0594661    -4.11   0.000    -.3611582   -.1280555
    dprovid3 |    2.38059   .0678197    35.10   0.000     2.247666    2.513514
    dprovid4 |  -1.018004   .0682288   -14.92   0.000     -1.15173   -.8842779
    dprovid5 |  -4.310449   .3574463   -12.06   0.000    -5.011031   -3.609868
    dprovid6 |    .730605   .0575526    12.69   0.000      .617804    .8434059
    dprovid7 |  -3.183854   .1653222   -19.26   0.000     -3.50788   -2.859828
    dprovid8 |  -2.264025   .1026382   -22.06   0.000    -2.465192   -2.062858
    dprovid9 |  -2.569442   .1195005   -21.50   0.000    -2.803659   -2.335225
   dprovid10 |  -3.194969   .1832326   -17.44   0.000    -3.554098   -2.835839
   dprovid11 |  -2.530026   .1139212   -22.21   0.000    -2.753308   -2.306745
   dprovid12 |   1.206499   .0611714    19.72   0.000     1.086605    1.326393
   dprovid13 |  -2.367109   .1072686   -22.07   0.000    -2.577351   -2.156866
   dprovid14 |    .242309   .0580519     4.17   0.000     .1285294    .3560886
   dprovid15 |  -3.293668   .1771505   -18.59   0.000    -3.640877   -2.946459
   dprovid16 |   .5089971   .0579808     8.78   0.000     .3953568    .6226373
   dprovid17 |  -2.849963   .1335326   -21.34   0.000    -3.111682   -2.588244
   dprovid18 |  -1.623512   .0790025   -20.55   0.000    -1.778354    -1.46867
       d2005 |   1.305912   .0930588    14.03   0.000      1.12352    1.488304
       d2006 |   2.022965   .1339096    15.11   0.000     1.760507    2.285423
       d2007 |    2.13743   .1801867    11.86   0.000     1.784271     2.49059
       d2008 |   1.284453   .2348744     5.47   0.000     .8241074    1.744798
       d2009 |   .9293407   .2853618     3.26   0.001     .3700419    1.488639
       d2010 |   .6711462   .3350754     2.00   0.045     .0144104    1.327882
       d2011 |   .4750764   .3925868     1.21   0.226    -.2943795    1.244532
       dayid |   .0001936   .0001501     1.29   0.197    -.0001006    .0004878
    witspdys |  -.0198274   .0047992    -4.13   0.000    -.0292338   -.0104211
   witspdys2 |    .000076   .0000419     1.82   0.069    -6.04e-06    .0001581
   witspdys3 |  -7.33e-08   6.12e-08    -1.20   0.231    -1.93e-07    4.66e-08
       _cons |  -2.156758   .5108007    -4.22   0.000    -3.157909   -1.155608
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 502 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. *Model 5
. logit dgtd drelph drelnph dsecph irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinact
> lg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2014 dayid gtdpdys gtdpdys2 gtdpdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     72,306
                                                Wald chi2(42)     =          .
                                                Prob > chi2       =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -16901.611               Pseudo R2         =     0.3474

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4190619   .0425593    -9.85   0.000    -.5024766   -.3356471
     drelnph |   .0516612     .03182     1.62   0.104    -.0107048    .1140273
      dsecph |   .0180298   .0376119     0.48   0.632    -.0556882    .0917478
  irqelect30 |   .0548983   .0663884     0.83   0.408    -.0752205    .1850171
   uselect30 |  -.0408637   .0737307    -0.55   0.579    -.1853732    .1036457
    oilprice |   .0110342   .0014442     7.64   0.000     .0082036    .0138647
  grainindex |  -.0027878   .0007347    -3.79   0.000    -.0042279   -.0013478
        temp |  -.0038407   .0015163    -2.53   0.011    -.0068125   -.0008689
        wesd |  -.0092145   .0130409    -0.71   0.480    -.0347741    .0163451
      precip |  -.0047433   .0047763    -0.99   0.321    -.0141048    .0046181
     tcloudc |   .0002025   .0007046     0.29   0.774    -.0011785    .0015836
 ctcoinactlg |  -.0024841   .0020989    -1.18   0.237    -.0065978    .0016296
    dprovid2 |  -.6780219   .0622475   -10.89   0.000    -.8000247   -.5560191
    dprovid3 |   1.550018   .0526066    29.46   0.000      1.44691    1.653125
    dprovid4 |  -1.730574   .0928179   -18.64   0.000    -1.912494   -1.548655
    dprovid5 |  -5.391568   .9828977    -5.49   0.000    -7.318012   -3.465124
    dprovid6 |   .3021512   .0530146     5.70   0.000     .1982445    .4060579
    dprovid7 |  -3.295334   .2014746   -16.36   0.000    -3.690217   -2.900451
    dprovid8 |  -2.401018   .1152646   -20.83   0.000    -2.626932   -2.175103
    dprovid9 |   -3.28804   .2116114   -15.54   0.000    -3.702791   -2.873289
   dprovid10 |  -3.736636   .3057872   -12.22   0.000    -4.335968   -3.137304
   dprovid11 |  -2.916281   .1700366   -17.15   0.000    -3.249547   -2.583016
   dprovid12 |   .3756575   .0537768     6.99   0.000     .2702569    .4810582
   dprovid13 |  -3.284191   .2649229   -12.40   0.000     -3.80343   -2.764952
   dprovid14 |   .2366709   .0523149     4.52   0.000     .1341355    .3392062
   dprovid15 |  -3.352934   .2267898   -14.78   0.000    -3.797433   -2.908434
   dprovid16 |  -.1535622   .0566749    -2.71   0.007     -.264643   -.0424813
   dprovid17 |  -2.948951   .1707906   -17.27   0.000    -3.283695   -2.614208
   dprovid18 |  -2.393868   .1207716   -19.82   0.000    -2.630576    -2.15716
       d2005 |   .4344535   .1110186     3.91   0.000     .2168611     .652046
       d2006 |   .4708789   .1446135     3.26   0.001     .1874417     .754316
       d2007 |   .7854771   .1852215     4.24   0.000     .4224498    1.148505
       d2008 |   .8284477   .2447208     3.39   0.001     .3488038    1.308092
       d2009 |   1.110321   .2842031     3.91   0.000      .553293    1.667349
       d2010 |   .7947175   .3343521     2.38   0.017     .1393994    1.450036
       d2011 |    .820396   .3953561     2.08   0.038     .0455122     1.59528
       d2012 |   .7088913   .4468546     1.59   0.113    -.1669277     1.58471
       d2013 |   1.472725   .4972191     2.96   0.003     .4981938    2.447257
       d2014 |   1.911356   .5436281     3.52   0.000     .8458642    2.976847
       dayid |   .0001057   .0001447     0.73   0.465    -.0001778    .0003892
     gtdpdys |  -.0080517   .0012908    -6.24   0.000    -.0105815   -.0055219
    gtdpdys2 |   6.05e-06   1.71e-06     3.55   0.000     2.71e-06    9.39e-06
    gtdpdys3 |  -1.19e-09   5.47e-10    -2.19   0.029    -2.27e-09   -1.23e-10
       _cons |    -1.5037   .4620011    -3.25   0.001    -2.409206   -.5981949
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 6
. logit dibc drelph drelnph dsecph irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinact
> lg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2009 dayid ibcpdys ibcpdys2 ibcpdys3 if (gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2008) | (gyear==2
> 009 & gnummnth<=6), robust nolog

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     36,126
                                                Wald chi2(38)     =    6744.02
                                                Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -12083.272               Pseudo R2         =     0.3790

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dibc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |   -.381434   .0490924    -7.77   0.000    -.4776534   -.2852145
     drelnph |   .0425525   .0384321     1.11   0.268    -.0327731    .1178781
      dsecph |  -.0659287   .0445231    -1.48   0.139    -.1531924    .0213349
  irqelect30 |   .0527084   .0929683     0.57   0.571    -.1295061     .234923
   uselect30 |   .3162039    .085381     3.70   0.000     .1488602    .4835477
    oilprice |   .0021803   .0020554     1.06   0.289    -.0018482    .0062088
  grainindex |   .0000352   .0010715     0.03   0.974     -.002065    .0021354
        temp |   .0053645   .0021171     2.53   0.011      .001215     .009514
        wesd |   .0125395   .0170004     0.74   0.461    -.0207807    .0458598
      precip |  -.0017031   .0047004    -0.36   0.717    -.0109157    .0075094
     tcloudc |  -.0022754   .0008774    -2.59   0.010     -.003995   -.0005558
 ctcoinactlg |  -.0001944   .0018038    -0.11   0.914    -.0037297     .003341
    dprovid2 |   .1934949   .0715214     2.71   0.007     .0533155    .3336743
    dprovid3 |   2.348925   .0763964    30.75   0.000     2.199191     2.49866
    dprovid4 |  -.8672694   .0806149   -10.76   0.000    -1.025272    -.709267
    dprovid5 |  -4.857251   .8194643    -5.93   0.000    -6.463372   -3.251131
    dprovid6 |   1.096101   .0695655    15.76   0.000     .9597549    1.232447
    dprovid7 |  -2.428494   .1953183   -12.43   0.000     -2.81131   -2.045677
    dprovid8 |    -1.9208   .1135904   -16.91   0.000    -2.143433   -1.698167
    dprovid9 |  -2.034658   .1191071   -17.08   0.000    -2.268104   -1.801212
   dprovid10 |  -2.946245   .2012718   -14.64   0.000    -3.340731    -2.55176
   dprovid11 |  -1.984559   .1232112   -16.11   0.000    -2.226048   -1.743069
   dprovid12 |   1.181881   .0737645    16.02   0.000     1.037305    1.326456
   dprovid13 |  -1.636603   .1042346   -15.70   0.000    -1.840899   -1.432307
   dprovid14 |    .352478   .0719685     4.90   0.000     .2114223    .4935338
   dprovid15 |  -2.782121    .197453   -14.09   0.000    -3.169122   -2.395121
   dprovid16 |   .1723184   .0719348     2.40   0.017     .0313287    .3133081
   dprovid17 |  -2.635789   .1636732   -16.10   0.000    -2.956582   -2.314995
   dprovid18 |  -.7665252   .0790548    -9.70   0.000    -.9214698   -.6115806
       d2005 |   .7987293   .1097094     7.28   0.000     .5837029    1.013756
       d2006 |   1.932875   .1641117    11.78   0.000     1.611223    2.254528
       d2007 |   2.103804   .2133028     9.86   0.000     1.685738     2.52187
       d2008 |   1.108532   .2740336     4.05   0.000     .5714362    1.645628
       d2009 |   .6339104   .3233401     1.96   0.050     .0001754    1.267645
       dayid |  -9.84e-06   .0001796    -0.05   0.956    -.0003618    .0003421
     ibcpdys |  -.0258654    .003346    -7.73   0.000    -.0324234   -.0193073
    ibcpdys2 |   .0000901   .0000218     4.14   0.000     .0000475    .0001328
    ibcpdys3 |  -7.84e-08   3.26e-08    -2.41   0.016    -1.42e-07   -1.45e-08
       _cons |  -3.510365   .6542861    -5.37   0.000    -4.792742   -2.227988
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Pakistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-PAK.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 7
. logit dwits drelph drelnph dsecph pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinac
> tlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2011 dayid witspdys witspdys2 witspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust nolo
> g

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     23,368
                                                Wald chi2(29)     =          .
                                                Prob > chi2       =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -7338.3456               Pseudo R2         =     0.3674

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |   -.424618    .147469    -2.88   0.004     -.713652    -.135584
     drelnph |   .0110426   .0447628     0.25   0.805    -.0766909    .0987762
      dsecph |   .0100641   .0564963     0.18   0.859    -.1006665    .1207948
  pakelect30 |   .0622772   .1485769     0.42   0.675    -.2289281    .3534826
   uselect30 |  -.1791304   .1239908    -1.44   0.149    -.4221478     .063887
    oilprice |  -.0040318   .0022249    -1.81   0.070    -.0083926    .0003289
  grainindex |   .0038154   .0011267     3.39   0.001     .0016071    .0060237
        temp |   .0022111   .0037457     0.59   0.555    -.0051304    .0095525
        wesd |  -.0201563   .0066942    -3.01   0.003    -.0332767   -.0070358
      precip |  -.0119562   .0050748    -2.36   0.018    -.0219027   -.0020097
     tcloudc |   .0016657   .0011511     1.45   0.148    -.0005905    .0039218
 ctcoinactlg |   .0155952   .0038526     4.05   0.000     .0080442    .0231462
     dproid2 |   4.967292   .6887519     7.21   0.000     3.617363    6.317221
     dproid3 |   .3943266   .8089335     0.49   0.626    -1.191154    1.979807
     dproid4 |   4.324549   .6911991     6.26   0.000     2.969823    5.679274
     dproid5 |   1.215399   .7148394     1.70   0.089    -.1856601    2.616459
     dproid6 |   2.553265   .6965322     3.67   0.000     1.188087    3.918443
     dproid7 |   4.964246   .6939043     7.15   0.000     3.604219    6.324274
     dproid8 |   2.962448   .6961179     4.26   0.000     1.598082    4.326814
       d2005 |   1.299988   .1599261     8.13   0.000     .9865384    1.613437
       d2006 |   1.349313   .2154367     6.26   0.000     .9270644    1.771561
       d2007 |   2.433763   .2804123     8.68   0.000     1.884165    2.983361
       d2008 |   3.162265   .3652479     8.66   0.000     2.446392    3.878137
       d2009 |   3.510089   .4379299     8.02   0.000     2.651762    4.368416
       d2010 |   3.414201   .5121166     6.67   0.000     2.410471    4.417931
       d2011 |   3.610286   .5977948     6.04   0.000     2.438629    4.781942
       dayid |  -.0005731   .0002253    -2.54   0.011    -.0010147   -.0001315
    witspdys |  -.0133715   .0036384    -3.68   0.000    -.0205026   -.0062405
   witspdys2 |   9.87e-06   4.19e-06     2.36   0.018     1.67e-06    .0000181
   witspdys3 |  -1.77e-09   1.40e-09    -1.26   0.207    -4.53e-09    9.81e-10
       _cons |  -6.995326   .7104619    -9.85   0.000    -8.387806   -5.602846
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 8
. logit dgtd drelph drelnph dsecph pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinact
> lg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2014 dayid gtdpdys gtdpdys2 gtdpdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolog

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     32,136
                                                Wald chi2(32)     =          .
                                                Prob > chi2       =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -9096.3777               Pseudo R2         =     0.3722

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.5375832   .1417658    -3.79   0.000     -.815439   -.2597274
     drelnph |   .0407597   .0398803     1.02   0.307    -.0374043    .1189236
      dsecph |  -.0597814   .0509492    -1.17   0.241    -.1596399    .0400771
  pakelect30 |   .2590686   .1125154     2.30   0.021     .0385424    .4795948
   uselect30 |  -.0852883   .0963095    -0.89   0.376    -.2740515    .1034749
    oilprice |  -.0057992   .0018695    -3.10   0.002    -.0094633   -.0021351
  grainindex |   .0013895    .000944     1.47   0.141    -.0004607    .0032397
        temp |   .0029261   .0029497     0.99   0.321    -.0028551    .0087073
        wesd |  -.0006156   .0060708    -0.10   0.919    -.0125141    .0112829
      precip |  -.0180342   .0053647    -3.36   0.001    -.0285488   -.0075197
     tcloudc |   .0013585   .0010515     1.29   0.196    -.0007023    .0034194
 ctcoinactlg |   .0032407   .0030651     1.06   0.290    -.0027667    .0092481
     dproid2 |   4.373425   .2035032    21.49   0.000     3.974566    4.772284
     dproid3 |  -1.512888   .5481829    -2.76   0.006    -2.587307   -.4384695
     dproid4 |    3.68371   .2116743    17.40   0.000     3.268837    4.098584
     dproid5 |    .754922   .2446067     3.09   0.002     .2755017    1.234342
     dproid6 |   1.861263   .2217961     8.39   0.000     1.426551    2.295976
     dproid7 |     3.9969   .2173801    18.39   0.000     3.570843    4.422958
     dproid8 |    3.23017   .2175288    14.85   0.000     2.803822    3.656519
       d2005 |   .4631085   .2072024     2.24   0.025     .0569993    .8692177
       d2006 |   1.068091   .2338563     4.57   0.000     .6097407    1.526441
       d2007 |   1.599008   .2820468     5.67   0.000     1.046207     2.15181
       d2008 |   2.308586   .3564776     6.48   0.000     1.609903     3.00727
       d2009 |   2.670679   .4080251     6.55   0.000     1.870965    3.470394
       d2010 |   2.843236   .4784612     5.94   0.000      1.90547    3.781003
       d2011 |   3.542527   .5641428     6.28   0.000     2.436828    4.648227
       d2012 |   4.264912   .6336921     6.73   0.000     3.022899    5.506926
       d2013 |   4.569917   .7032437     6.50   0.000     3.191585    5.948249
       d2014 |   4.780904   .7688445     6.22   0.000     3.273997    6.287812
       dayid |  -.0002724   .0002024    -1.35   0.178    -.0006691    .0001243
     gtdpdys |  -.0140301   .0023098    -6.07   0.000    -.0185572    -.009503
    gtdpdys2 |   .0000219   6.62e-06     3.31   0.001     8.91e-06    .0000348
    gtdpdys3 |  -8.23e-09   4.58e-09    -1.80   0.072    -1.72e-08    7.38e-10
       _cons |  -6.737139   .2995707   -22.49   0.000    -7.324287   -6.149992
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 9
. logit dpips drelph drelnph dsecph pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinac
> tlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2014 dayid pipspdys pipspdys2 pipspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust nolo
> g

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =     32,136
                                                Wald chi2(32)     =          .
                                                Prob > chi2       =          .
Log pseudolikelihood =  -9374.294               Pseudo R2         =     0.5050

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dpips |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -1.011865   .1331894    -7.60   0.000    -1.272911   -.7508182
     drelnph |   -.034454   .0399556    -0.86   0.389    -.1127656    .0438575
      dsecph |   .0504285   .0498262     1.01   0.311    -.0472291    .1480861
  pakelect30 |   .1837118   .1127503     1.63   0.103    -.0372747    .4046982
   uselect30 |  -.1849515   .0976453    -1.89   0.058    -.3763328    .0064297
    oilprice |  -.0018251    .001811    -1.01   0.314    -.0053745    .0017244
  grainindex |    .001402   .0009365     1.50   0.134    -.0004335    .0032375
        temp |    .002761   .0030146     0.92   0.360    -.0031475    .0086694
        wesd |  -.0000184   .0059718    -0.00   0.998    -.0117228     .011686
      precip |  -.0063963   .0052237    -1.22   0.221    -.0166345    .0038419
     tcloudc |    .002061   .0010323     2.00   0.046     .0000378    .0040843
 ctcoinactlg |   .0275819   .0050004     5.52   0.000     .0177812    .0373825
     dproid2 |   4.089955   .1407805    29.05   0.000      3.81403    4.365879
     dproid3 |   .2643823   .1554318     1.70   0.089    -.0402585    .5690231
     dproid4 |   3.812185   .1484952    25.67   0.000      3.52114     4.10323
     dproid5 |  -.1877336   .1878801    -1.00   0.318    -.5559718    .1805046
     dproid6 |   1.070889   .1562181     6.86   0.000      .764707    1.377071
     dproid7 |   3.977173   .1574705    25.26   0.000     3.668537     4.28581
     dproid8 |   2.791069   .1562948    17.86   0.000     2.484737    3.097401
       d2005 |  -.0190841   .4509443    -0.04   0.966    -.9029187    .8647505
       d2006 |   2.105608    .363535     5.79   0.000     1.393093    2.818124
       d2007 |   3.360693   .3995431     8.41   0.000     2.577603    4.143783
       d2008 |   3.643223   .4506572     8.08   0.000     2.759952    4.526495
       d2009 |   3.978203   .4963917     8.01   0.000     3.005293    4.951113
       d2010 |   3.970465   .5554246     7.15   0.000     2.881853    5.059077
       d2011 |   3.896723   .6224587     6.26   0.000     2.676726    5.116719
       d2012 |    3.46928   .6856968     5.06   0.000     2.125339    4.813222
       d2013 |   3.593008   .7489646     4.80   0.000     2.125065    5.060952
       d2014 |   3.221524   .8121624     3.97   0.000     1.629715    4.813333
       dayid |    .000325   .0002001     1.62   0.104    -.0000672    .0007171
    pipspdys |  -.0230163   .0028578    -8.05   0.000    -.0286175   -.0174152
   pipspdys2 |   .0000289   7.87e-06     3.67   0.000     .0000134    .0000443
   pipspdys3 |  -9.67e-09   4.62e-09    -2.10   0.036    -1.87e-08   -6.23e-10
       _cons |  -7.522228   .3868422   -19.45   0.000    -8.280425   -6.764031
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************
. * Supplementary Table 3
. ****************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. **Afghanistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-AFG.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 1
. relogit dwits drelph drelnph dsecph afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoin
> actlg drcid2-drcid5 d2005-d2011 dayid witspdys witspdys2 witspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011
(5 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    14605

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.2425303   .0592685    -4.09   0.000    -.3586944   -.1263661
     drelnph |  -.0110751   .0502793    -0.22   0.826    -.1096207    .0874706
      dsecph |   .0843952   .1782717     0.47   0.636    -.2650108    .4338013
  afgelect30 |   .2917749   .0988898     2.95   0.003     .0979544    .4855953
   uselect30 |  -.0756055   .1169371    -0.65   0.518    -.3047979    .1535869
    oilprice |  -.0024442   .0023161    -1.06   0.291    -.0069836    .0020952
  grainindex |   .0000766   .0011381     0.07   0.946    -.0021541    .0023073
        temp |   .0207442   .0035249     5.89   0.000     .0138356    .0276529
        wesd |  -.0218778   .0052398    -4.18   0.000    -.0321477    -.011608
      precip |  -.0326978    .009711    -3.37   0.001     -.051731   -.0136646
     tcloudc |  -.0009857   .0011201    -0.88   0.379     -.003181    .0012095
 ctcoinactlg |   .0071913   .0035643     2.02   0.044     .0002055    .0141772
      drcid2 |   3.094421    .093608    33.06   0.000     2.910953    3.277889
      drcid3 |   1.447871   .0856314    16.91   0.000     1.280037    1.615706
      drcid4 |   2.631538   .1027408    25.61   0.000      2.43017    2.832907
      drcid5 |   1.177448    .081735    14.41   0.000      1.01725    1.337645
       d2005 |   1.199929   .1547658     7.75   0.000      .896593    1.503264
       d2006 |   2.017941   .2177886     9.27   0.000     1.591083    2.444799
       d2007 |   2.093427   .2937952     7.13   0.000     1.517599    2.669255
       d2008 |   2.207892    .385397     5.73   0.000     1.452528    2.963256
       d2009 |   2.826399   .4662797     6.06   0.000     1.912508     3.74029
       d2010 |   3.121351   .5464637     5.71   0.000     2.050302      4.1924
       d2011 |   2.973818   .6423813     4.63   0.000     1.714774    4.232862
       dayid |   .0001299   .0002471     0.53   0.599    -.0003544    .0006143
    witspdys |  -.0482011   .0115388    -4.18   0.000    -.0708168   -.0255854
   witspdys2 |   .0011052   .0005294     2.09   0.037     .0000676    .0021427
   witspdys3 |  -5.70e-06   4.94e-06    -1.16   0.248    -.0000154    3.97e-06
       _cons |  -4.483653   .2157599   -20.78   0.000    -4.906535   -4.060772
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 2
. relogit dgtd drelph drelnph dsecph afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoina
> ctlg drcid2-drcid5 d2005-d2014 dayid gtdpdys gtdpdys2 gtdpdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014
(5 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    20085

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.3221634   .0567029    -5.68   0.000    -.4332991   -.2110277
     drelnph |  -.0068912   .0452096    -0.15   0.879    -.0955004    .0817181
      dsecph |   .0253019   .1650925     0.15   0.878    -.2982735    .3488773
  afgelect30 |   .2915006   .1072846     2.72   0.007     .0812267    .5017746
   uselect30 |  -.0658375   .0964361    -0.68   0.495    -.2548488    .1231738
    oilprice |   .0017654   .0019222     0.92   0.358    -.0020021    .0055329
  grainindex |  -.0029286   .0010046    -2.92   0.004    -.0048977   -.0009595
        temp |     .01721   .0030087     5.72   0.000      .011313     .023107
        wesd |  -.0174467   .0047712    -3.66   0.000     -.026798   -.0080954
      precip |  -.0184134   .0083024    -2.22   0.027    -.0346859   -.0021409
     tcloudc |  -.0000583   .0010433    -0.06   0.955    -.0021032    .0019866
 ctcoinactlg |   .0038009   .0025934     1.47   0.143    -.0012821     .008884
      drcid2 |   2.084931   .0778734    26.77   0.000     1.932302     2.23756
      drcid3 |   .9671796   .0764883    12.64   0.000     .8172652    1.117094
      drcid4 |   1.734791   .0789153    21.98   0.000     1.580119    1.889462
      drcid5 |   .6957609   .0766986     9.07   0.000     .5454345    .8460874
       d2005 |   .4647787   .1765915     2.63   0.008     .1186658    .8108917
       d2006 |   .9849177   .2285337     4.31   0.000     .5369998    1.432836
       d2007 |   1.246709   .2965195     4.20   0.000     .6655413    1.827876
       d2008 |   1.672854   .3933921     4.25   0.000     .9018198    2.443888
       d2009 |   1.754227   .4548715     3.86   0.000     .8626949    2.645758
       d2010 |   1.667698   .5348624     3.12   0.002     .6193867    2.716009
       d2011 |    1.65279   .6334826     2.61   0.009     .4111874    2.894393
       d2012 |   3.125851   .7189011     4.35   0.000     1.716831    4.534871
       d2013 |   3.030791   .8003264     3.79   0.000      1.46218    4.599402
       d2014 |   3.329319   .8798219     3.78   0.000     1.604899    5.053738
       dayid |   2.76e-06   .0002344     0.01   0.991    -.0004567    .0004622
     gtdpdys |  -.0332412   .0061767    -5.38   0.000    -.0453473   -.0211351
    gtdpdys2 |   .0003826   .0001441     2.66   0.008     .0001002    .0006651
    gtdpdys3 |  -1.20e-06   7.25e-07    -1.65   0.098    -2.62e-06    2.22e-07
       _cons |  -3.807059   .2037858   -18.68   0.000    -4.206472   -3.407646
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 3
. relogit dsigact drelph drelnph dsecph afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctco
> inactlg drcid2 drcid3 drcid5 d2009-d2014 dayid sigactpdys sigactpdys2 sigactpdys3 if drcid4==0 & gyear>=2008
>  & gyear<=2014
(7,310 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    10224

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     dsigact |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.2885266   .0866324    -3.33   0.001     -.458323   -.1187302
     drelnph |  -.0516088   .0778596    -0.66   0.507    -.2042108    .1009932
      dsecph |  -.0294459   .2578795    -0.11   0.909    -.5348805    .4759887
  afgelect30 |   .1473734   .1640498     0.90   0.369    -.1741582     .468905
   uselect30 |   .0363315   .1500847     0.24   0.809    -.2578291     .330492
    oilprice |  -.0028625   .0028167    -1.02   0.310    -.0083832    .0026582
  grainindex |   .0001606   .0014645     0.11   0.913    -.0027097    .0030309
        temp |   .0429946   .0048981     8.78   0.000     .0333945    .0525947
        wesd |  -.0005474   .0059336    -0.09   0.926     -.012177    .0110822
      precip |  -.0239178   .0101248    -2.36   0.018     -.043762   -.0040736
     tcloudc |  -.0033954   .0016013    -2.12   0.034    -.0065339    -.000257
 ctcoinactlg |   .0329986    .018073     1.83   0.068    -.0024239     .068421
      drcid2 |   7.528023   .5775332    13.03   0.000     6.396078    8.659967
      drcid3 |   2.290564    .087629    26.14   0.000     2.118814    2.462314
      drcid5 |    2.57034   .0909332    28.27   0.000     2.392114    2.748566
       d2009 |  -.1689665   .1828336    -0.92   0.355    -.5273138    .1893808
       d2010 |  -.6040507   .2760038    -2.19   0.029    -1.145008   -.0630932
       d2011 |  -1.277836   .4079693    -3.13   0.002    -2.077441   -.4782311
       d2012 |  -1.960191   .5375117    -3.65   0.000    -3.013695    -.906688
       d2013 |  -2.316436   .6662867    -3.48   0.001    -3.622334   -1.010538
       d2014 |  -2.936502   .7925021    -3.71   0.000    -4.489778   -1.383227
       dayid |    .002537   .0003626     7.00   0.000     .0018263    .0032477
  sigactpdys |  -.1604126   .0519136    -3.09   0.002    -.2621615   -.0586637
 sigactpdys2 |   .0158124   .0100509     1.57   0.116    -.0038871    .0355118
 sigactpdys3 |  -.0003577   .0004365    -0.82   0.412    -.0012133    .0004978
       _cons |  -6.165969   .7472495    -8.25   0.000    -7.630551   -4.701387
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Iraq Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-IRQ.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 4
. relogit dwits drelph drelnph dsecph irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoin
> actlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2011 dayid witspdys witspdys2 witspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011
(18 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    52578

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4748919      .0417   -11.39   0.000    -.5566225   -.3931613
     drelnph |    .011773   .0321533     0.37   0.714    -.0512463    .0747923
      dsecph |   -.076617   .0375731    -2.04   0.041     -.150259    -.002975
  irqelect30 |   .0878508   .0745969     1.18   0.239    -.0583566    .2340581
   uselect30 |   .1358249   .0738356     1.84   0.066    -.0088902    .2805401
    oilprice |   .0074485   .0015441     4.82   0.000     .0044221     .010475
  grainindex |  -.0037526   .0007609    -4.93   0.000    -.0052439   -.0022614
        temp |   .0018818   .0016596     1.13   0.257     -.001371    .0051346
        wesd |  -.0017607   .0128275    -0.14   0.891    -.0269022    .0233807
      precip |  -.0027533   .0043893    -0.63   0.530    -.0113562    .0058496
     tcloudc |  -.0017368   .0007372    -2.36   0.018    -.0031817    -.000292
 ctcoinactlg |  -.0104821   .0044171    -2.37   0.018    -.0191394   -.0018248
    dprovid2 |  -.2444394   .0594198    -4.11   0.000       -.3609   -.1279789
    dprovid3 |   2.377783   .0677671    35.09   0.000     2.244962    2.510604
    dprovid4 |  -1.017392   .0681762   -14.92   0.000    -1.151015   -.8837693
    dprovid5 |  -4.256935   .3571841   -11.92   0.000    -4.957003   -3.556867
    dprovid6 |   .7298233   .0575078    12.69   0.000     .6171102    .8425364
    dprovid7 |  -3.174247   .1651962   -19.22   0.000    -3.498025   -2.850468
    dprovid8 |  -2.261777   .1025607   -22.05   0.000    -2.462793   -2.060762
    dprovid9 |  -2.565534   .1194095   -21.49   0.000    -2.799572   -2.331495
   dprovid10 |  -3.183574   .1830917   -17.39   0.000    -3.542427   -2.824721
   dprovid11 |  -2.525587   .1138331   -22.19   0.000    -2.748695   -2.302478
   dprovid12 |   1.205033   .0611239    19.71   0.000     1.085232    1.324834
   dprovid13 |  -2.364056   .1071868   -22.06   0.000    -2.574138   -2.153973
   dprovid14 |   .2420066   .0580067     4.17   0.000     .1283156    .3556976
   dprovid15 |  -3.283208   .1770155   -18.55   0.000    -3.630152   -2.936264
   dprovid16 |   .5084782   .0579356     8.78   0.000     .3949265      .62203
   dprovid17 |  -2.844794   .1334312   -21.32   0.000    -3.106315   -2.583274
   dprovid18 |  -1.622246   .0789421   -20.55   0.000     -1.77697   -1.467522
       d2005 |   1.304407   .0929865    14.03   0.000     1.122157    1.486657
       d2006 |   2.020699   .1338056    15.10   0.000     1.758445    2.282954
       d2007 |   2.134819   .1800465    11.86   0.000     1.781935    2.487704
       d2008 |   1.282515   .2346915     5.46   0.000     .8225282    1.742502
       d2009 |   .9269587   .2851394     3.25   0.001     .3680957    1.485822
       d2010 |    .668945   .3348144     2.00   0.046     .0127208    1.325169
       d2011 |   .4729367   .3922809     1.21   0.228    -.2959197    1.241793
       dayid |   .0001942     .00015     1.29   0.195    -.0000998    .0004882
    witspdys |  -.0196246   .0047962    -4.09   0.000     -.029025   -.0102242
   witspdys2 |   .0000744   .0000419     1.78   0.076    -7.67e-06    .0001564
   witspdys3 |  -7.02e-08   6.11e-08    -1.15   0.251    -1.90e-07    4.97e-08
       _cons |  -2.154342   .5104029    -4.22   0.000    -3.154714   -1.153971
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 5
. relogit dgtd drelph drelnph dsecph irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoina
> ctlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2014 dayid gtdpdys gtdpdys2 gtdpdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014
(18 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    72306

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4183544   .0425335    -9.84   0.000    -.5017184   -.3349904
     drelnph |   .0516975   .0318007     1.63   0.104    -.0106307    .1140256
      dsecph |   .0181794    .037589     0.48   0.629    -.0554937    .0918526
  irqelect30 |   .0555293    .066348     0.84   0.403    -.0745104    .1855689
   uselect30 |  -.0400378   .0736858    -0.54   0.587    -.1844593    .1043838
    oilprice |   .0110248   .0014433     7.64   0.000      .008196    .0138537
  grainindex |  -.0027869   .0007343    -3.80   0.000     -.004226   -.0013477
        temp |  -.0038436   .0015153    -2.54   0.011    -.0068136   -.0008736
        wesd |  -.0088161   .0130329    -0.68   0.499    -.0343602    .0167279
      precip |  -.0046056   .0047734    -0.96   0.335    -.0139614    .0047501
     tcloudc |   .0002014   .0007042     0.29   0.775    -.0011788    .0015816
 ctcoinactlg |   -.002282   .0020976    -1.09   0.277    -.0063932    .0018292
    dprovid2 |  -.6770968   .0622096   -10.88   0.000    -.7990254   -.5551682
    dprovid3 |   1.548363   .0525747    29.45   0.000     1.445319    1.651408
    dprovid4 |  -1.728139   .0927614   -18.63   0.000    -1.909948    -1.54633
    dprovid5 |   -4.88972   .9822188    -4.98   0.000    -6.814834   -2.964607
    dprovid6 |   .3019343   .0529824     5.70   0.000     .1980908    .4057778
    dprovid7 |    -3.2773    .201352   -16.28   0.000    -3.671943   -2.882657
    dprovid8 |  -2.396127   .1151945   -20.80   0.000    -2.621904    -2.17035
    dprovid9 |   -3.27001   .2114827   -15.46   0.000    -3.684509   -2.855512
   dprovid10 |  -3.691275   .3056013   -12.08   0.000    -4.290243   -3.092308
   dprovid11 |  -2.905657   .1699331   -17.10   0.000     -3.23872   -2.572594
   dprovid12 |   .3751362   .0537441     6.98   0.000     .2697996    .4804727
   dprovid13 |  -3.257136   .2647617   -12.30   0.000    -3.776059   -2.738213
   dprovid14 |    .236382   .0522831     4.52   0.000      .133909     .338855
   dprovid15 |  -3.330484   .2266518   -14.69   0.000    -3.774713   -2.886254
   dprovid16 |  -.1532874   .0566405    -2.71   0.007    -.2643007   -.0422741
   dprovid17 |  -2.938026   .1706867   -17.21   0.000    -3.272566   -2.603486
   dprovid18 |  -2.388899   .1206981   -19.79   0.000    -2.625463   -2.152335
       d2005 |   .4333497   .1109511     3.91   0.000     .2158897    .6508098
       d2006 |    .469524   .1445255     3.25   0.001     .1862592    .7527888
       d2007 |    .783756   .1851088     4.23   0.000     .4209494    1.146563
       d2008 |   .8268402   .2445719     3.38   0.001      .347488    1.306192
       d2009 |   1.108073   .2840302     3.90   0.000     .5513837    1.664762
       d2010 |   .7924637   .3341488     2.37   0.018     .1375442    1.447383
       d2011 |   .8180075   .3951157     2.07   0.038      .043595     1.59242
       d2012 |   .7067607   .4465829     1.58   0.114    -.1685257    1.582047
       d2013 |   1.469376   .4969167     2.96   0.003     .4954376    2.443315
       d2014 |   1.906891   .5432975     3.51   0.000     .8420472    2.971734
       dayid |   .0001061   .0001446     0.73   0.463    -.0001773    .0003894
     gtdpdys |  -.0079909     .00129    -6.19   0.000    -.0105192   -.0054626
    gtdpdys2 |   6.00e-06   1.70e-06     3.52   0.000     2.66e-06    9.34e-06
    gtdpdys3 |  -1.17e-09   5.46e-10    -2.15   0.032    -2.24e-09   -1.02e-10
       _cons |  -1.500029   .4617202    -3.25   0.001    -2.404984   -.5950744
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 6
. relogit dibc drelph drelnph dsecph irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoina
> ctlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2009 dayid ibcpdys ibcpdys2 ibcpdys3 if (gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2008) | (gyear=
> =2009 & gnummnth<=6)
(18 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    36126

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dibc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.3811795   .0490395    -7.77   0.000    -.4772951   -.2850639
     drelnph |   .0424436   .0383907     1.11   0.269    -.0328008    .1176879
      dsecph |  -.0659267   .0444751    -1.48   0.138    -.1530962    .0212429
  irqelect30 |   .0539041   .0928681     0.58   0.562    -.1281139    .2359222
   uselect30 |   .3161393    .085289     3.71   0.000      .148976    .4833026
    oilprice |   .0021943   .0020532     1.07   0.285    -.0018299    .0062184
  grainindex |   .0000228   .0010704     0.02   0.983    -.0020751    .0021207
        temp |    .005341   .0021148     2.53   0.012      .001196     .009486
        wesd |   .0130714   .0169821     0.77   0.441    -.0202128    .0463557
      precip |  -.0016554   .0046953    -0.35   0.724    -.0108581    .0075472
     tcloudc |  -.0022652   .0008764    -2.58   0.010    -.0039829   -.0005474
 ctcoinactlg |   .0024174   .0018019     1.34   0.180    -.0011141     .005949
    dprovid2 |   .1950134   .0714443     2.73   0.006     .0549851    .3350416
    dprovid3 |   2.344631    .076314    30.72   0.000     2.195058    2.494204
    dprovid4 |  -.8645323    .080528   -10.74   0.000    -1.022364   -.7067003
    dprovid5 |   -4.72386    .818574    -5.77   0.000    -6.328236   -3.119484
    dprovid6 |   1.095539   .0694905    15.77   0.000     .9593401    1.231738
    dprovid7 |  -2.413203   .1951077   -12.37   0.000    -2.795607   -2.030799
    dprovid8 |  -1.916147   .1134679   -16.89   0.000     -2.13854   -1.693754
    dprovid9 |   -2.02921   .1189787   -17.06   0.000    -2.262404   -1.796016
   dprovid10 |   -2.92782   .2010547   -14.56   0.000     -3.32188    -2.53376
   dprovid11 |  -1.978847   .1230783   -16.08   0.000    -2.220076   -1.737618
   dprovid12 |   1.179852    .073685    16.01   0.000     1.035432    1.324272
   dprovid13 |   -1.63213   .1041222   -15.68   0.000    -1.836205   -1.428054
   dprovid14 |   .3532109   .0718909     4.91   0.000     .2123072    .4941145
   dprovid15 |  -2.765189   .1972401   -14.02   0.000    -3.151773   -2.378606
   dprovid16 |   .1737789   .0718573     2.42   0.016     .0329412    .3146165
   dprovid17 |  -2.625252   .1634967   -16.06   0.000    -2.945699   -2.304804
   dprovid18 |  -.7639863   .0789696    -9.67   0.000    -.9187638   -.6092088
       d2005 |   .7960148   .1095911     7.26   0.000     .5812203    1.010809
       d2006 |   1.928473   .1639347    11.76   0.000     1.607167    2.249779
       d2007 |   2.098677   .2130728     9.85   0.000     1.681062    2.516292
       d2008 |   1.104663   .2737381     4.04   0.000     .5681464     1.64118
       d2009 |   .6307538   .3229914     1.95   0.051    -.0022977    1.263805
       dayid |  -7.72e-06   .0001794    -0.04   0.966    -.0003593    .0003438
     ibcpdys |   -.025623   .0033424    -7.67   0.000     -.032174    -.019072
    ibcpdys2 |   .0000886   .0000217     4.08   0.000      .000046    .0001312
    ibcpdys3 |  -7.55e-08   3.25e-08    -2.32   0.020    -1.39e-07   -1.17e-08
       _cons |  -3.502531   .6535805    -5.36   0.000    -4.783525   -2.221536
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Pakistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-PAK.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 7
. relogit dwits drelph drelnph dsecph pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoin
> actlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2011 dayid witspdys witspdys2 witspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011
(8 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    23368

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.4207121   .1472737    -2.86   0.004    -.7093632   -.1320611
     drelnph |   .0110739   .0447035     0.25   0.804    -.0765434    .0986913
      dsecph |   .0102915   .0564214     0.18   0.855    -.1002924    .1208755
  pakelect30 |   .0626113     .14838     0.42   0.673    -.2282082    .3534308
   uselect30 |  -.1771318   .1238265    -1.43   0.153    -.4198272    .0655636
    oilprice |  -.0040155   .0022219    -1.81   0.071    -.0083704    .0003395
  grainindex |   .0038062   .0011252     3.38   0.001     .0016009    .0060116
        temp |   .0021863   .0037407     0.58   0.559    -.0051454    .0095179
        wesd |  -.0200741   .0066853    -3.00   0.003    -.0331771   -.0069711
      precip |   -.011868   .0050681    -2.34   0.019    -.0218014   -.0019347
     tcloudc |   .0016661   .0011496     1.45   0.147    -.0005871    .0039193
 ctcoinactlg |   .0154749   .0038475     4.02   0.000     .0079339    .0230159
     dproid2 |   4.786431   .6878257     6.96   0.000     3.438317    6.134544
     dproid3 |   .3144352   .8078411     0.39   0.697    -1.268904    1.897775
     dproid4 |   4.145768   .6902697     6.01   0.000     2.792864    5.498672
     dproid5 |    1.04542   .7138786     1.46   0.143    -.3537568    2.444596
     dproid6 |   2.377687   .6955957     3.42   0.001     1.014344    3.741029
     dproid7 |   4.784437   .6929714     6.90   0.000     3.426238    6.142636
     dproid8 |   2.786228    .695182     4.01   0.000     1.423697     4.14876
       d2005 |   1.296117   .1597142     8.12   0.000     .9830832    1.609151
       d2006 |   1.345667   .2151513     6.25   0.000     .9239787    1.767356
       d2007 |   2.428049   .2800408     8.67   0.000     1.879179    2.976918
       d2008 |   3.155169   .3647639     8.65   0.000     2.440245    3.870094
       d2009 |   3.501892   .4373497     8.01   0.000     2.644703    4.359082
       d2010 |   3.406511   .5114381     6.66   0.000     2.404111    4.408911
       d2011 |   3.601792   .5970027     6.03   0.000     2.431688    4.771895
       dayid |  -.0005717    .000225    -2.54   0.011    -.0010128   -.0001307
    witspdys |  -.0132219   .0036335    -3.64   0.000    -.0203435   -.0061003
   witspdys2 |     .00001   4.18e-06     2.40   0.016     1.84e-06    .0000182
   witspdys3 |  -1.86e-09   1.40e-09    -1.32   0.186    -4.60e-09    8.94e-10
       _cons |  -6.811065   .7095076    -9.60   0.000    -8.201674   -5.420455
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 8
. relogit dgtd drelph drelnph dsecph pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoina
> ctlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2014 dayid gtdpdys gtdpdys2 gtdpdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014
(8 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    32136

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        dgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -.5331703    .141616    -3.76   0.000    -.8107325   -.2556081
     drelnph |   .0408776   .0398381     1.03   0.305    -.0372037    .1189589
      dsecph |  -.0594333   .0508953    -1.17   0.243    -.1591863    .0403196
  pakelect30 |   .2601604   .1123965     2.31   0.021     .0398673    .4804535
   uselect30 |  -.0845977   .0962077    -0.88   0.379    -.2731614     .103966
    oilprice |  -.0057888   .0018675    -3.10   0.002     -.009449   -.0021285
  grainindex |   .0013886    .000943     1.47   0.141    -.0004597    .0032369
        temp |   .0028937   .0029465     0.98   0.326    -.0028815    .0086688
        wesd |  -.0006271   .0060644    -0.10   0.918    -.0125131    .0112589
      precip |  -.0178815    .005359    -3.34   0.001     -.028385   -.0073781
     tcloudc |   .0013555   .0010504     1.29   0.197    -.0007032    .0034141
 ctcoinactlg |   .0032447   .0030618     1.06   0.289    -.0027564    .0092457
     dproid2 |   4.350434   .2032882    21.40   0.000     3.951996    4.748872
     dproid3 |   -1.40735   .5476223    -2.57   0.010     -2.48067   -.3340297
     dproid4 |    3.66206   .2114507    17.32   0.000     3.247624    4.076496
     dproid5 |   .7413384   .2443483     3.03   0.002     .2624246    1.220252
     dproid6 |   1.842749   .2215618     8.32   0.000     1.408495    2.277002
     dproid7 |   3.975018   .2171505    18.31   0.000     3.549411    4.400625
     dproid8 |   3.209433    .217299    14.77   0.000     2.783535    3.635331
       d2005 |   .4613834   .2069834     2.23   0.026     .0557034    .8670634
       d2006 |   1.062478   .2336092     4.55   0.000     .6046127    1.520344
       d2007 |   1.591508   .2817487     5.65   0.000      1.03929    2.143725
       d2008 |   2.299428   .3561009     6.46   0.000     1.601484    2.997373
       d2009 |   2.659711   .4075939     6.53   0.000     1.860842    3.458581
       d2010 |   2.831783   .4779555     5.92   0.000     1.895007    3.768558
       d2011 |   3.528943   .5635466     6.26   0.000     2.424412    4.633474
       d2012 |   4.249896   .6330224     6.71   0.000     3.009195    5.490597
       d2013 |   4.553875   .7025004     6.48   0.000     3.176999     5.93075
       d2014 |   4.764221   .7680319     6.20   0.000     3.258906    6.269536
       dayid |  -.0002707   .0002022    -1.34   0.181     -.000667    .0001255
     gtdpdys |  -.0139342   .0023073    -6.04   0.000    -.0184565   -.0094119
    gtdpdys2 |   .0000219   6.61e-06     3.31   0.001     8.91e-06    .0000348
    gtdpdys3 |  -8.21e-09   4.57e-09    -1.80   0.073    -1.72e-08    7.54e-10
       _cons |  -6.706774   .2992542   -22.41   0.000    -7.293301   -6.120246
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 9
. relogit dpips drelph drelnph dsecph pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoin
> actlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2014 dayid pipspdys pipspdys2 pipspdys3 if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014
(8 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =    32136

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       dpips |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      drelph |  -1.009193   .1330486    -7.59   0.000    -1.269964   -.7484229
     drelnph |  -.0343772   .0399134    -0.86   0.389     -.112606    .0438515
      dsecph |   .0503088   .0497736     1.01   0.312    -.0472456    .1478632
  pakelect30 |   .1822096   .1126311     1.62   0.106    -.0385433    .4029625
   uselect30 |  -.1844922   .0975421    -1.89   0.059    -.3756712    .0066868
    oilprice |  -.0018276   .0018091    -1.01   0.312    -.0053733    .0017181
  grainindex |   .0013938   .0009355     1.49   0.136    -.0004398    .0032273
        temp |   .0027616   .0030114     0.92   0.359    -.0031406    .0086638
        wesd |  -.0000465   .0059654    -0.01   0.994    -.0117385    .0116456
      precip |  -.0063817   .0052181    -1.22   0.221    -.0166091    .0038457
     tcloudc |   .0020587   .0010312     2.00   0.046     .0000375    .0040798
 ctcoinactlg |    .027335   .0049951     5.47   0.000     .0175447    .0371253
     dproid2 |   4.079211   .1406317    29.01   0.000     3.803578    4.354844
     dproid3 |   .2599416   .1552675     1.67   0.094    -.0443772    .5642604
     dproid4 |   3.802068   .1483382    25.63   0.000     3.511331    4.092806
     dproid5 |  -.1894421   .1876815    -1.01   0.313    -.5572912    .1784069
     dproid6 |   1.064398    .156053     6.82   0.000     .7585402    1.370257
     dproid7 |    3.96647   .1573041    25.22   0.000     3.658159     4.27478
     dproid8 |   2.782159   .1561296    17.82   0.000     2.476151    3.088168
       d2005 |  -.0187225   .4504677    -0.04   0.967     -.901623     .864178
       d2006 |    2.06612   .3631507     5.69   0.000     1.354357    2.777882
       d2007 |   3.318899   .3991208     8.32   0.000     2.536637    4.101162
       d2008 |    3.60084   .4501809     8.00   0.000     2.718502    4.483178
       d2009 |   3.935435   .4958671     7.94   0.000     2.963553    4.907316
       d2010 |   3.927685   .5548376     7.08   0.000     2.840223    5.015146
       d2011 |   3.854515   .6218008     6.20   0.000     2.635808    5.073222
       d2012 |   3.427737   .6849721     5.00   0.000     2.085216    4.770258
       d2013 |   3.551252    .748173     4.75   0.000      2.08486    5.017644
       d2014 |   3.180092    .811304     3.92   0.000     1.589965    4.770218
       dayid |   .0003246   .0001999     1.62   0.104    -.0000671    .0007163
    pipspdys |  -.0228167   .0028548    -7.99   0.000     -.028412   -.0172215
   pipspdys2 |   .0000283   7.86e-06     3.60   0.000     .0000129    .0000437
   pipspdys3 |  -9.31e-09   4.61e-09    -2.02   0.043    -1.83e-08   -2.73e-10
       _cons |  -7.468395   .3864334   -19.33   0.000     -8.22579   -6.710999
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************
. * Supplementary Table 4
. ****************************************************************************************
. 
. 
. **Afghanistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-AFG.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 1
. nbreg ctwits ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dl
> aqu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 dlibd1 danyd1 dvicd1 dlabd1 dindd1 afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp w
> esd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg drcid2-drcid5 d2005-d2011 dayid ctwitslg if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2011, robust
>  nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     14,605
                                                Wald chi2(45)     =    4541.20
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -14763.505               Pseudo R2         =     0.1799

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |  -.1373754   .0465731    -2.95   0.003     -.228657   -.0460938
       dhm01 |  -.2347196   .0718508    -3.27   0.001    -.3755447   -.0938945
       dhm07 |   .0017315   .0484582     0.04   0.971    -.0932448    .0967078
       dhm09 |   .0208988    .055406     0.38   0.706    -.0876949    .1294925
       dhm11 |  -.0387193   .0758768    -0.51   0.610    -.1874352    .1099966
       dhm12 |  -.0731439   .0752974    -0.97   0.331     -.220724    .0744363
      dahny1 |   .6955299   .3776163     1.84   0.065    -.0445845    1.435644
      ddoas1 |  -.3200741   .2148145    -1.49   0.136    -.7411029    .1009547
      dmanu1 |   .0050673   .2297928     0.02   0.982    -.4453183    .4554529
      dmanh1 |  -.0565923   .2324538    -0.24   0.808    -.5121933    .3990087
      disam1 |   .0003229   .2239935     0.00   0.999    -.4386963    .4393421
      dlyab1 |    -.44957   .1909147    -2.35   0.019    -.8237559   -.0753842
      dfdor1 |  -.2477627   .2221561    -1.12   0.265    -.6831807    .1876553
      dlaqh1 |   -.185509   .1983245    -0.94   0.350    -.5742178    .2031998
      dlaqu1 |   -.560388   .2109056    -2.66   0.008    -.9737555   -.1470206
      deidf3 |  -1.376221   .1632344    -8.43   0.000    -1.696154   -1.056287
      ddoar1 |  -.5368171   .3305891    -1.62   0.104     -1.18476    .1111257
      deida4 |   -.149069   .1925247    -0.77   0.439    -.5264104    .2282725
      dlibd1 |  -.0323899   .2451482    -0.13   0.895    -.5128716    .4480919
      danyd1 |  -.2020086   .2513738    -0.80   0.422    -.6946923     .290675
      dvicd1 |  -.1829643   .2546746    -0.72   0.472    -.6821173    .3161888
      dlabd1 |   .2424364   .1625935     1.49   0.136     -.076241    .5611137
      dindd1 |   .1288859   .2071755     0.62   0.534    -.2771706    .5349425
  afgelect30 |   .2482905   .0776793     3.20   0.001      .096042    .4005391
   uselect30 |   .0210308   .0843718     0.25   0.803    -.1443348    .1863965
    oilprice |  -.0012469   .0016669    -0.75   0.454    -.0045139    .0020201
  grainindex |   .0007638   .0008237     0.93   0.354    -.0008507    .0023783
        temp |   .0131593   .0030796     4.27   0.000     .0071233    .0191953
        wesd |  -.0187508   .0039581    -4.74   0.000    -.0265086    -.010993
      precip |  -.0151695   .0069837    -2.17   0.030    -.0288572   -.0014818
     tcloudc |  -.0014451     .00083    -1.74   0.082    -.0030718    .0001817
 ctcoinactlg |   .0008189     .00153     0.54   0.592    -.0021798    .0038176
      drcid2 |   2.699388    .070369    38.36   0.000     2.561468    2.837309
      drcid3 |   1.560252   .0757859    20.59   0.000     1.411715     1.70879
      drcid4 |   2.276877   .0762348    29.87   0.000     2.127459    2.426294
      drcid5 |   1.198196   .0683046    17.54   0.000     1.064322    1.332071
       d2005 |   1.159521   .1307679     8.87   0.000     .9032204    1.415821
       d2006 |   1.773183   .1847385     9.60   0.000     1.411102    2.135263
       d2007 |   1.804615    .255025     7.08   0.000     1.304775    2.304455
       d2008 |   1.791356   .3367318     5.32   0.000     1.131374    2.451338
       d2009 |   2.340639   .4052395     5.78   0.000     1.546384    3.134894
       d2010 |   2.677757    .476053     5.62   0.000     1.744711    3.610804
       d2011 |   2.516478   .5679874     4.43   0.000     1.403243    3.629713
       dayid |   .0001691    .000215     0.79   0.432    -.0002522    .0005904
    ctwitslg |   .0098344   .0053362     1.84   0.065    -.0006244    .0202932
       _cons |  -4.505063   .1523074   -29.58   0.000     -4.80358   -4.206546
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   -.437172   .0550813                     -.5451293   -.3292147
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   .6458603   .0355748                      .5797668    .7194885
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 2
. nbreg ctgtd ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dla
> qu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 dlibd1 danyd1 dvicd1 dlabd1 dindd1 afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp we
> sd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg drcid2-drcid5 d2005-d2014 dayid ctgtdlg if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2014, robust n
> olog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     20,085
                                                Wald chi2(48)     =    5026.53
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -13050.994               Pseudo R2         =     0.1711

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |  -.1939478   .0420682    -4.61   0.000    -.2763999   -.1114957
       dhm01 |   -.152779    .064585    -2.37   0.018    -.2793632   -.0261948
       dhm07 |   .0814717   .0470828     1.73   0.084    -.0108089    .1737523
       dhm09 |  -.1398336   .0546802    -2.56   0.011    -.2470047   -.0326625
       dhm11 |  -.1242863   .0576498    -2.16   0.031    -.2372779   -.0112947
       dhm12 |   .0397397   .0637028     0.62   0.533    -.0851156     .164595
      dahny1 |  -.1155316   .2848246    -0.41   0.685    -.6737776    .4427144
      ddoas1 |  -.3745702   .2596426    -1.44   0.149    -.8834604    .1343201
      dmanu1 |  -.1141873   .3090139    -0.37   0.712    -.7198434    .4914688
      dmanh1 |  -.4669971   .2801403    -1.67   0.096    -1.016062    .0820677
      disam1 |  -.2486997   .2565708    -0.97   0.332    -.7515693    .2541699
      dlyab1 |  -.9134533   .3109123    -2.94   0.003     -1.52283   -.3040764
      dfdor1 |  -.7537791   .3002506    -2.51   0.012    -1.342259   -.1652988
      dlaqh1 |   .0163659    .197857     0.08   0.934    -.3714267    .4041585
      dlaqu1 |  -.1210884   .2123166    -0.57   0.568    -.5372214    .2950445
      deidf3 |   -.923556   .2115141    -4.37   0.000    -1.338116    -.508996
      ddoar1 |  -.6644317   .2895914    -2.29   0.022     -1.23202    -.096843
      deida4 |  -.2901442   .1602299    -1.81   0.070    -.6041891    .0239007
      dlibd1 |  -.1572658   .3095507    -0.51   0.611    -.7639741    .4494425
      danyd1 |   .0271508   .2543624     0.11   0.915    -.4713903     .525692
      dvicd1 |   .0466683   .2263382     0.21   0.837    -.3969465    .4902831
      dlabd1 |  -.1664827   .2026133    -0.82   0.411    -.5635976    .2306321
      dindd1 |   -.331515   .2226834    -1.49   0.137    -.7679664    .1049364
  afgelect30 |    .568773   .1367144     4.16   0.000     .3008177    .8367283
   uselect30 |  -.1065356   .0693778    -1.54   0.125    -.2425136    .0294423
    oilprice |   .0024324   .0014552     1.67   0.095    -.0004196    .0052845
  grainindex |  -.0019886   .0008399    -2.37   0.018    -.0036348   -.0003424
        temp |   .0068031   .0025378     2.68   0.007      .001829    .0117772
        wesd |  -.0222572   .0040514    -5.49   0.000    -.0301978   -.0143166
      precip |  -.0160106   .0067139    -2.38   0.017    -.0291696   -.0028516
     tcloudc |  -.0006034    .000798    -0.76   0.450    -.0021674    .0009606
 ctcoinactlg |   .0036354   .0020048     1.81   0.070    -.0002938    .0075647
      drcid2 |   1.849277   .0712509    25.95   0.000     1.709627    1.988926
      drcid3 |   .8612834   .0774988    11.11   0.000     .7093886    1.013178
      drcid4 |   1.526883   .0722112    21.14   0.000     1.385352    1.668414
      drcid5 |   .6312283   .0751771     8.40   0.000     .4838838    .7785728
       d2005 |    .476504   .1563853     3.05   0.002     .1699944    .7830137
       d2006 |   1.077106   .1982838     5.43   0.000     .6884765    1.465735
       d2007 |   1.295341   .2562605     5.05   0.000     .7930802    1.797603
       d2008 |   1.545152   .3451184     4.48   0.000     .8687321    2.221571
       d2009 |   1.610105    .398235     4.04   0.000      .829579    2.390632
       d2010 |   1.552556   .4628832     3.35   0.001     .6453217     2.45979
       d2011 |   1.419887   .5523851     2.57   0.010     .3372318    2.502542
       d2012 |   2.626668   .6285871     4.18   0.000      1.39466    3.858676
       d2013 |   2.536681   .6946943     3.65   0.000     1.175105    3.898256
       d2014 |    2.73019   .7650474     3.57   0.000     1.230724    4.229655
       dayid |   .0001089   .0002036     0.53   0.593    -.0002902    .0005081
     ctgtdlg |   .0561617   .0143666     3.91   0.000     .0280037    .0843196
       _cons |  -4.050911   .1803332   -22.46   0.000    -4.404357   -3.697464
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |  -.7265877   .1021393                      -.926777   -.5263985
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   .4835562   .0493901                      .3958274    .5907287
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 3
. nbreg ctsigact ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 
> dlaqu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 dlibd1 danyd1 dvicd1 dlabd1 dindd1 afgelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex temp
>  wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg drcid2-drcid5 d2009-d2014 dayid ctsigactlg if gyear>=2008 & gyear<=2014, ro
> bust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     12,780
                                                Wald chi2(44)     =   54260.70
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -31808.855               Pseudo R2         =     0.2740

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
    ctsigact |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |   -.059938   .0132263    -4.53   0.000    -.0858611   -.0340149
       dhm01 |  -.1780204   .0225261    -7.90   0.000    -.2221708     -.13387
       dhm07 |   .0952862   .0188388     5.06   0.000     .0583627    .1322096
       dhm09 |   .0299815   .0190245     1.58   0.115    -.0073059    .0672688
       dhm11 |  -.0255108   .0182366    -1.40   0.162    -.0612539    .0102324
       dhm12 |  -.0700255   .0225962    -3.10   0.002    -.1143132   -.0257378
      dahny1 |  -.0761628   .0882628    -0.86   0.388    -.2491547    .0968291
      ddoas1 |   .0117004   .0786666     0.15   0.882    -.1424833    .1658841
      dmanu1 |   .0160354   .0643332     0.25   0.803    -.1100554    .1421262
      dmanh1 |   .0638851   .0878941     0.73   0.467    -.1083841    .2361543
      disam1 |  -.0460652   .0847756    -0.54   0.587    -.2122223    .1200918
      dlyab1 |   .1883788   .1107624     1.70   0.089    -.0287115    .4054691
      dfdor1 |  -.3806831   .0918017    -4.15   0.000    -.5606112    -.200755
      dlaqh1 |    .024734   .0913384     0.27   0.787     -.154286     .203754
      dlaqu1 |   -.075035   .0880189    -0.85   0.394    -.2475489    .0974789
      deidf3 |   -.409662   .0496423    -8.25   0.000    -.5069591   -.3123648
      ddoar1 |  -.0558193   .0875925    -0.64   0.524    -.2274975    .1158588
      deida4 |  -.2548292   .0534359    -4.77   0.000    -.3595617   -.1500967
      dlibd1 |    .076442   .1015907     0.75   0.452    -.1226721     .275556
      danyd1 |   .0917916   .0980279     0.94   0.349    -.1003395    .2839227
      dvicd1 |   .0549136   .1003046     0.55   0.584    -.1416798     .251507
      dlabd1 |  -.0410311   .1115541    -0.37   0.713    -.2596732     .177611
      dindd1 |    .115511    .082467     1.40   0.161    -.0461214    .2771434
  afgelect30 |   .1935053   .0390378     4.96   0.000     .1169927     .270018
   uselect30 |  -.0274164   .0229438    -1.19   0.232    -.0723854    .0175526
    oilprice |   .0020248     .00048     4.22   0.000      .001084    .0029657
  grainindex |  -.0004747   .0002366    -2.01   0.045    -.0009384    -.000011
        temp |  -.0016058   .0008661    -1.85   0.064    -.0033034    .0000918
        wesd |  -.0229463    .001226   -18.72   0.000    -.0253492   -.0205434
      precip |  -.0120576   .0022666    -5.32   0.000    -.0165001   -.0076151
     tcloudc |  -.0007772   .0002884    -2.69   0.007    -.0013424   -.0002119
 ctcoinactlg |   .0011233   .0010705     1.05   0.294    -.0009749    .0032216
      drcid2 |   3.160246   .0380878    82.97   0.000     3.085595    3.234897
      drcid3 |   1.483898   .0357227    41.54   0.000     1.413883    1.553913
      drcid4 |   3.180493   .0443773    71.67   0.000     3.093515    3.267471
      drcid5 |   1.605794     .03371    47.64   0.000     1.539724    1.671865
       d2009 |   .2039651   .0356849     5.72   0.000     .1340239    .2739063
       d2010 |   .1963092   .0539118     3.64   0.000      .090644    .3019744
       d2011 |  -.0665427   .0792414    -0.84   0.401     -.221853    .0887677
       d2012 |  -.2621202   .1043656    -2.51   0.012     -.466673   -.0575673
       d2013 |  -.4024517   .1293428    -3.11   0.002    -.6559589   -.1489444
       d2014 |  -.7127654   .1564384    -4.56   0.000    -1.019379   -.4061518
       dayid |   .0007146   .0000725     9.85   0.000     .0005724    .0008567
  ctsigactlg |   .0177274   .0008606    20.60   0.000     .0160407    .0194142
       _cons |  -2.219579   .1420473   -15.63   0.000    -2.497987   -1.941172
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |  -2.181297   .0557283                     -2.290523   -2.072072
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |    .112895   .0062914                      .1012135    .1259246
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Iraq Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-IRQ.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 4
. nbreg ctwits ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dl
> aqu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 ddowk5 dnyrd1 darmd1 dlabd1 drepd1 dindd1 irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex
>  temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2011 dayid ctwitslg if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=
> 2011, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     52,578
                                                Wald chi2(59)     =   25539.17
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -33365.721               Pseudo R2         =     0.2969

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |  -.4010928   .0261427   -15.34   0.000    -.4523315   -.3498542
       dhm01 |   -.091226   .0344999    -2.64   0.008    -.1588446   -.0236073
       dhm07 |   .0105771   .0315227     0.34   0.737    -.0512061    .0723604
       dhm09 |   .0456054   .0311751     1.46   0.144    -.0154968    .1067075
       dhm11 |  -.1086832    .036289    -2.99   0.003    -.1798083    -.037558
       dhm12 |  -.1405537   .0373915    -3.76   0.000    -.2138397   -.0672677
      dahny1 |  -.0653666   .1489498    -0.44   0.661    -.3573028    .2265696
      ddoas1 |   .2236749   .1577099     1.42   0.156    -.0854308    .5327807
      dmanu1 |   .0471664   .1358848     0.35   0.729    -.2191628    .3134956
      dmanh1 |   .0004156   .1359046     0.00   0.998    -.2659525    .2667836
      disam1 |  -.0835632     .17811    -0.47   0.639    -.4326523    .2655259
      dlyab1 |   .0019708   .1758972     0.01   0.991    -.3427815     .346723
      dfdor1 |  -.4379281   .1513136    -2.89   0.004    -.7344973   -.1413588
      dlaqh1 |   .2480935   .1728758     1.44   0.151    -.0907367    .5869238
      dlaqu1 |   .2249314   .1172028     1.92   0.055    -.0047819    .4546448
      deidf3 |  -.6010406   .1188197    -5.06   0.000    -.8339229   -.3681583
      ddoar1 |   .0893913   .1564521     0.57   0.568    -.2172492    .3960317
      deida4 |  -.7257044   .1112926    -6.52   0.000    -.9438339   -.5075749
      ddowk5 |  -.0829784   .0226621    -3.66   0.000    -.1273953   -.0385614
      dnyrd1 |   .0810791   .1344068     0.60   0.546    -.1823534    .3445116
      darmd1 |  -.1562234   .1579185    -0.99   0.323    -.4657379    .1532911
      dlabd1 |     .01994   .1430171     0.14   0.889    -.2603684    .3002484
      drepd1 |  -.0623112   .1274253    -0.49   0.625    -.3120602    .1874379
      dindd1 |   .1895483   .1432421     1.32   0.186    -.0912011    .4702977
  irqelect30 |   .0991332   .0478789     2.07   0.038     .0052923    .1929741
   uselect30 |   .0852656   .0433368     1.97   0.049      .000327    .1702041
    oilprice |   .0036147   .0009288     3.89   0.000     .0017942    .0054351
  grainindex |  -.0020586   .0004672    -4.41   0.000    -.0029743   -.0011429
        temp |   .0002001   .0012037     0.17   0.868     -.002159    .0025593
        wesd |   .0008975   .0068593     0.13   0.896    -.0125465    .0143414
      precip |  -.0014402   .0024851    -0.58   0.562    -.0063109    .0034306
     tcloudc |  -.0004481   .0004325    -1.04   0.300    -.0012957    .0003995
 ctcoinactlg |  -.0050705   .0021932    -2.31   0.021     -.009369   -.0007719
    dprovid2 |  -.1337745   .0426597    -3.14   0.002     -.217386    -.050163
    dprovid3 |   1.462562   .0376377    38.86   0.000     1.388793     1.53633
    dprovid4 |   -.871348   .0513622   -16.96   0.000     -.972016     -.77068
    dprovid5 |  -4.902977   .3136226   -15.63   0.000    -5.517667   -4.288288
    dprovid6 |   .6400524   .0378798    16.90   0.000     .5658093    .7142955
    dprovid7 |  -3.477553   .1440613   -24.14   0.000    -3.759908   -3.195198
    dprovid8 |   -2.09177   .0907852   -23.04   0.000    -2.269706   -1.913835
    dprovid9 |  -2.533976   .1066012   -23.77   0.000    -2.742911   -2.325042
   dprovid10 |  -3.409822   .1554933   -21.93   0.000    -3.714583    -3.10506
   dprovid11 |   -2.50514   .1007585   -24.86   0.000    -2.702623   -2.307657
   dprovid12 |    .858433   .0372773    23.03   0.000     .7853709    .9314951
   dprovid13 |  -2.319562   .0904612   -25.64   0.000    -2.496863   -2.142262
   dprovid14 |   .2009485   .0403325     4.98   0.000     .1218982    .2799989
   dprovid15 |  -3.560876   .1617351   -22.02   0.000    -3.877871   -3.243881
   dprovid16 |   .3788255   .0379108     9.99   0.000     .3045218    .4531293
   dprovid17 |  -2.866517   .1196889   -23.95   0.000    -3.101103   -2.631931
   dprovid18 |  -1.478878   .0631914   -23.40   0.000     -1.60273   -1.355025
       d2005 |   1.004467   .0650138    15.45   0.000     .8770424    1.131892
       d2006 |   1.462639   .0910266    16.07   0.000     1.284231    1.641048
       d2007 |   1.443965   .1201757    12.02   0.000     1.208425    1.679505
       d2008 |   .7996128   .1555046     5.14   0.000     .4948294    1.104396
       d2009 |   .4555124   .1892767     2.41   0.016      .084537    .8264879
       d2010 |   .3315271   .2231754     1.49   0.137    -.1058886    .7689427
       d2011 |   .1010767     .26047     0.39   0.698    -.4094351    .6115885
       dayid |   .0003073   .0000993     3.09   0.002     .0001126     .000502
    ctwitslg |   .0796895   .0039092    20.38   0.000     .0720275    .0873515
       _cons |  -1.695966   .3688098    -4.60   0.000    -2.418819   -.9731116
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |  -1.040187   .0408252                     -1.120203   -.9601714
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   .3533885   .0144272                      .3262135    .3828273
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 5
. nbreg ctgtd ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dla
> qu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 ddowk5 dnyrd1 darmd1 dlabd1 drepd1 dindd1 irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex 
> temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2014 dayid ctgtdlg if gyear>=2004 & gyear<=20
> 14, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     72,306
                                                Wald chi2(62)     =   10120.85
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -26970.495               Pseudo R2         =     0.2611

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |  -.4198689   .0385087   -10.90   0.000    -.4953447   -.3443932
       dhm01 |   .1016129   .0483598     2.10   0.036     .0068295    .1963962
       dhm07 |   .0195167   .0450543     0.43   0.665     -.068788    .1078214
       dhm09 |   .1065166    .051581     2.07   0.039     .0054198    .2076135
       dhm11 |  -.0160156   .0489736    -0.33   0.744    -.1120021    .0799709
       dhm12 |  -.0232003    .052394    -0.44   0.658    -.1258907    .0794901
      dahny1 |  -.2054484   .2101149    -0.98   0.328     -.617266    .2063692
      ddoas1 |   .3212832   .2455672     1.31   0.191    -.1600197    .8025861
      dmanu1 |   .1361756   .2171864     0.63   0.531    -.2895021    .5618532
      dmanh1 |  -.0753024   .2102664    -0.36   0.720     -.487417    .3368121
      disam1 |  -.1993171   .2282233    -0.87   0.382    -.6466266    .2479925
      dlyab1 |   .0414963   .1787883     0.23   0.816    -.3089224     .391915
      dfdor1 |  -.4455793   .2572462    -1.73   0.083    -.9497726     .058614
      dlaqh1 |  -.4406834    .226717    -1.94   0.052    -.8850405    .0036736
      dlaqu1 |   .2421989    .216454     1.12   0.263    -.1820431    .6664409
      deidf3 |  -.4065782   .1556395    -2.61   0.009     -.711626   -.1015304
      ddoar1 |   .3084356   .1912943     1.61   0.107    -.0664943    .6833654
      deida4 |  -.3993829   .1506312    -2.65   0.008    -.6946147   -.1041511
      ddowk5 |  -.0170952   .0340871    -0.50   0.616    -.0839047    .0497144
      dnyrd1 |   .0894474   .2708024     0.33   0.741    -.4413155    .6202102
      darmd1 |   .1182211   .2169909     0.54   0.586    -.3070733    .5435155
      dlabd1 |  -.0046557   .1990604    -0.02   0.981    -.3948069    .3854955
      drepd1 |   .4277419   .2436467     1.76   0.079    -.0497968    .9052806
      dindd1 |   .1273737   .1727706     0.74   0.461    -.2112505    .4659979
  irqelect30 |   .0363496    .053278     0.68   0.495    -.0680733    .1407726
   uselect30 |  -.0797486   .0660537    -1.21   0.227    -.2092114    .0497142
    oilprice |   .0104692   .0012947     8.09   0.000     .0079317    .0130067
  grainindex |  -.0021617   .0006639    -3.26   0.001    -.0034628   -.0008605
        temp |  -.0033057    .001495    -2.21   0.027    -.0062359   -.0003755
        wesd |  -.0010011   .0127766    -0.08   0.938    -.0260428    .0240406
      precip |  -.0043591   .0039442    -1.11   0.269    -.0120896    .0033715
     tcloudc |   .0003629   .0006185     0.59   0.557    -.0008493    .0015751
 ctcoinactlg |  -.0033519   .0020097    -1.67   0.095    -.0072909    .0005871
    dprovid2 |  -.6407486   .0594102   -10.79   0.000    -.7571903   -.5243068
    dprovid3 |   1.256213   .0422116    29.76   0.000     1.173479    1.338946
    dprovid4 |  -1.785989   .0917612   -19.46   0.000    -1.965838    -1.60614
    dprovid5 |  -7.239277   1.001293    -7.23   0.000    -9.201776   -5.276779
    dprovid6 |   .2462207   .0464529     5.30   0.000     .1551746    .3372667
    dprovid7 |  -3.678907   .2592777   -14.19   0.000    -4.187082   -3.170732
    dprovid8 |  -2.409759   .1173246   -20.54   0.000    -2.639711   -2.179807
    dprovid9 |  -3.915374   .2093579   -18.70   0.000    -4.325708    -3.50504
   dprovid10 |  -4.715627   .3140414   -15.02   0.000    -5.331137   -4.100117
   dprovid11 |  -3.349894   .1652343   -20.27   0.000    -3.673747   -3.026041
   dprovid12 |   .2459743   .0455549     5.40   0.000     .1566883    .3352603
   dprovid13 |   -3.95459   .2365109   -16.72   0.000    -4.418143   -3.491037
   dprovid14 |   .2211873   .0471406     4.69   0.000     .1287935    .3135811
   dprovid15 |   -4.09268   .2188716   -18.70   0.000     -4.52166   -3.663699
   dprovid16 |  -.1218706   .0528722    -2.31   0.021    -.2254983   -.0182429
   dprovid17 |  -3.329398    .167418   -19.89   0.000    -3.657531   -3.001265
   dprovid18 |   -2.48797   .1239486   -20.07   0.000    -2.730905   -2.245035
       d2005 |   .3257944   .1012202     3.22   0.001     .1274064    .5241823
       d2006 |    .328318   .1344229     2.44   0.015     .0648539    .5917821
       d2007 |   .5062281   .1746645     2.90   0.004     .1638919    .8485643
       d2008 |   .3258106   .2297036     1.42   0.156    -.1244002    .7760214
       d2009 |   .4581263   .2690046     1.70   0.089    -.0691129    .9853656
       d2010 |   .1433088   .3172882     0.45   0.652    -.4785646    .7651823
       d2011 |  -.0666041   .3736307    -0.18   0.859    -.7989068    .6656985
       d2012 |   .0095826   .4239924     0.02   0.982    -.8214273    .8405925
       d2013 |    .443804   .4713099     0.94   0.346    -.4799464    1.367554
       d2014 |   .6336864   .5172438     1.23   0.221    -.3800928    1.647466
       dayid |   .0003932   .0001387     2.83   0.005     .0001214    .0006651
     ctgtdlg |   .1348176    .009666    13.95   0.000     .1158725    .1537627
       _cons |  -1.747483   .4482854    -3.90   0.000    -2.626106     -.86886
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |   .2431589    .032713                      .1790427    .3072751
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   1.275271   .0417179                      1.196072    1.359715
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 6
. nbreg ctibc ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dla
> qu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 ddowk5 dnyrd1 darmd1 dlabd1 drepd1 dindd1 irqelect30 uselect30 oilprice grainindex 
> temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg dprovid2-dprovid18 d2005-d2009 dayid ctibclg if (gyear>=2004 & gyear<=2
> 008) | (gyear==2009 & gnummnth<=6), robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     36,126
                                                Wald chi2(57)     =   20752.52
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood =  -22236.75               Pseudo R2         =     0.3083

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctibc |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |   -.320627   .0295438   -10.85   0.000    -.3785317   -.2627223
       dhm01 |  -.1333267   .0431656    -3.09   0.002    -.2179297   -.0487236
       dhm07 |   .1044989   .0376015     2.78   0.005     .0308014    .1781965
       dhm09 |   .0213104   .0370222     0.58   0.565    -.0512518    .0938727
       dhm11 |  -.0866042   .0467635    -1.85   0.064     -.178259    .0050506
       dhm12 |  -.2713026   .0474253    -5.72   0.000    -.3642545   -.1783507
      dahny1 |  -.1703546   .2005115    -0.85   0.396    -.5633499    .2226407
      ddoas1 |   .0004672   .1962434     0.00   0.998    -.3841628    .3850972
      dmanu1 |     .00428   .1828922     0.02   0.981    -.3541821    .3627422
      dmanh1 |  -.1081928   .1912314    -0.57   0.572    -.4829993    .2666138
      disam1 |  -.5276203   .1936058    -2.73   0.006    -.9070807   -.1481599
      dlyab1 |  -.0312182   .1605967    -0.19   0.846     -.345982    .2835455
      dfdor1 |  -.2540433   .1673848    -1.52   0.129    -.5821114    .0740249
      dlaqh1 |  -.0326358   .1603642    -0.20   0.839    -.3469439    .2816722
      dlaqu1 |   .2556827   .1575074     1.62   0.105    -.0530261    .5643915
      deidf3 |  -.3930349   .1271782    -3.09   0.002    -.6422997   -.1437701
      ddoar1 |  -.1778322   .1963717    -0.91   0.365    -.5627137    .2070493
      deida4 |  -.7561166   .1669329    -4.53   0.000    -1.083299   -.4289342
      ddowk5 |  -.0548992   .0266486    -2.06   0.039    -.1071295    -.002669
      dnyrd1 |   .2282619   .1852266     1.23   0.218    -.1347757    .5912995
      darmd1 |  -.1156086   .2045018    -0.57   0.572    -.5164247    .2852075
      dlabd1 |  -.4042635   .1861867    -2.17   0.030    -.7691829   -.0393442
      drepd1 |   .1372309   .1465012     0.94   0.349    -.1499061     .424368
      dindd1 |   .1514205   .1436705     1.05   0.292    -.1301686    .4330095
  irqelect30 |   .0444633   .0649071     0.69   0.493    -.0827522    .1716789
   uselect30 |   .1673035     .05155     3.25   0.001     .0662672    .2683397
    oilprice |  -.0002085   .0012511    -0.17   0.868    -.0026606    .0022435
  grainindex |   .0008831   .0006393     1.38   0.167      -.00037    .0021362
        temp |  -.0033559   .0014839    -2.26   0.024    -.0062643   -.0004474
        wesd |   .0097007   .0093139     1.04   0.298    -.0085543    .0279556
      precip |  -.0065534   .0028191    -2.32   0.020    -.0120788    -.001028
     tcloudc |  -.0015355   .0005403    -2.84   0.004    -.0025944   -.0004765
 ctcoinactlg |   .0003433   .0013158     0.26   0.794    -.0022355    .0029221
    dprovid2 |    .232169   .0475594     4.88   0.000     .1389542    .3253837
    dprovid3 |   1.761934   .0436003    40.41   0.000     1.676479    1.847389
    dprovid4 |  -.6588907    .061736   -10.67   0.000    -.7798911   -.5378903
    dprovid5 |  -5.199936   .5339709    -9.74   0.000    -6.246499   -4.153372
    dprovid6 |   .9205243   .0416185    22.12   0.000     .8389534    1.002095
    dprovid7 |  -3.160304   .1657302   -19.07   0.000    -3.485129   -2.835478
    dprovid8 |  -1.889413   .0975732   -19.36   0.000    -2.080653   -1.698173
    dprovid9 |  -2.035394   .1040478   -19.56   0.000    -2.239324   -1.831464
   dprovid10 |  -3.151711   .1899048   -16.60   0.000    -3.523917   -2.779504
   dprovid11 |  -1.980322   .1068384   -18.54   0.000    -2.189721   -1.770923
   dprovid12 |   .9119649   .0437376    20.85   0.000     .8262408     .997689
   dprovid13 |  -1.578068   .0863564   -18.27   0.000    -1.747324   -1.408813
   dprovid14 |   .3302907   .0477388     6.92   0.000     .2367243    .4238571
   dprovid15 |  -3.311499   .1784599   -18.56   0.000    -3.661274   -2.961724
   dprovid16 |   .1450291   .0474672     3.06   0.002     .0519951    .2380631
   dprovid17 |  -2.850577   .1514627   -18.82   0.000    -3.147439   -2.553716
   dprovid18 |  -.5376217   .0594509    -9.04   0.000    -.6541433   -.4211001
       d2005 |   .8402673   .0804692    10.44   0.000     .6825506    .9979841
       d2006 |   1.686547   .1197585    14.08   0.000     1.451825     1.92127
       d2007 |   1.813285   .1588089    11.42   0.000     1.502025    2.124545
       d2008 |   1.131767   .1999085     5.66   0.000     .7399532     1.52358
       d2009 |   .6353649    .241515     2.63   0.009     .1620043    1.108726
       dayid |  -.0000639   .0001331    -0.48   0.631    -.0003248     .000197
     ctibclg |   .0730739   .0038693    18.89   0.000     .0654902    .0806576
       _cons |  -1.035225   .4567698    -2.27   0.023    -1.930477   -.1399723
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |  -1.357383   .0614568                     -1.477836    -1.23693
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   .2573334   .0158149                      .2281309    .2902741
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **Pakistan Models
. 
. use RRP-APSR-RepData-2017-04-04-PAK.dta, clear

. 
. *Model 7
. nbreg ctwits ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dl
> aqu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 ddowk1 dkhsd1 dpakd1 dlabd1 dindd1 daidd1 dqabd1 pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice gra
> inindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2011 dayid ctwitslg if gyear>=2004 & gye
> ar<=2011, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     23,368
                                                Wald chi2(50)     =    5208.50
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -12650.211               Pseudo R2         =     0.2709

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctwits |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |   -.000273   .0397604    -0.01   0.995     -.078202     .077656
       dhm01 |  -.0223107   .0577242    -0.39   0.699     -.135448    .0908266
       dhm07 |   .0325606    .052938     0.62   0.539    -.0711959    .1363171
       dhm09 |  -.0584685   .0590166    -0.99   0.322    -.1741389    .0572019
       dhm11 |   .0528637   .0592122     0.89   0.372      -.06319    .1689175
       dhm12 |   .0994189   .0697426     1.43   0.154    -.0372741    .2361118
      dahny1 |  -.3673252   .3617611    -1.02   0.310    -1.076364    .3417135
      ddoas1 |  -.0857033   .2534091    -0.34   0.735     -.582376    .4109693
      dmanu1 |  -.3579231   .2751971    -1.30   0.193    -.8972994    .1814533
      dmanh1 |   -.416497   .3994295    -1.04   0.297    -1.199364    .3663704
      disam1 |   -.070558   .2600506    -0.27   0.786    -.5802477    .4391318
      dlyab1 |  -.2529443   .2950852    -0.86   0.391    -.8313007     .325412
      dfdor1 |  -.0449423     .21795    -0.21   0.837    -.4721165    .3822319
      dlaqh1 |   .3787209   .2490247     1.52   0.128    -.1093586    .8668004
      dlaqu1 |  -.2620208    .249878    -1.05   0.294    -.7517727     .227731
      deidf3 |  -.3512591   .1795762    -1.96   0.050     -.703222    .0007038
      ddoar1 |  -.3036953   .2437756    -1.25   0.213    -.7814866     .174096
      deida4 |    -.26397   .1407747    -1.88   0.061    -.5398832    .0119433
      ddowk1 |  -.0533191   .0390808    -1.36   0.172    -.1299161    .0232778
      dkhsd1 |   .3335203   .2332443     1.43   0.153    -.1236301    .7906707
      dpakd1 |   .3158875   .2114767     1.49   0.135    -.0985993    .7303742
      dlabd1 |   .1896819   .2123972     0.89   0.372     -.226609    .6059729
      dindd1 |   .8278887   .3326236     2.49   0.013     .1759585    1.479819
      daidd1 |   .4415964     .21713     2.03   0.042     .0160295    .8671633
      dqabd1 |   .0657923   .2685724     0.24   0.806       -.4606    .5921846
  pakelect30 |  -.0046534   .0929163    -0.05   0.960    -.1867659    .1774591
   uselect30 |  -.1712594   .0836633    -2.05   0.041    -.3352365   -.0072822
    oilprice |  -.0059166   .0014814    -3.99   0.000    -.0088201   -.0030131
  grainindex |   .0028473   .0007444     3.82   0.000     .0013883    .0043063
        temp |   .0054816   .0030254     1.81   0.070    -.0004481    .0114114
        wesd |  -.0057156   .0042678    -1.34   0.180    -.0140803    .0026491
      precip |  -.0056481   .0034923    -1.62   0.106    -.0124929    .0011968
     tcloudc |   .0009815    .000773     1.27   0.204    -.0005336    .0024967
 ctcoinactlg |   .0077114   .0017702     4.36   0.000     .0042419    .0111809
     dproid2 |   5.979244   .5285162    11.31   0.000     4.943372    7.015117
     dproid3 |   .0930611   .6675043     0.14   0.889    -1.215223    1.401345
     dproid4 |   5.516378   .5291891    10.42   0.000     4.479186    6.553569
     dproid5 |   2.380027   .5454169     4.36   0.000      1.31103    3.449025
     dproid6 |   3.948296   .5332457     7.40   0.000     2.903154    4.993439
     dproid7 |   5.943266   .5302865    11.21   0.000     4.903924    6.982609
     dproid8 |   4.305857   .5330501     8.08   0.000     3.261098    5.350616
       d2005 |   1.364227   .1449209     9.41   0.000     1.080187    1.648267
       d2006 |   1.361411   .1883068     7.23   0.000     .9923368    1.730486
       d2007 |   2.238381   .2349226     9.53   0.000     1.777941    2.698821
       d2008 |   2.903226   .3026729     9.59   0.000     2.309998    3.496454
       d2009 |   3.012785   .3670284     8.21   0.000     2.293422    3.732147
       d2010 |   3.015151   .4280302     7.04   0.000     2.176227    3.854075
       d2011 |   3.247648   .4977241     6.52   0.000     2.272126    4.223169
       dayid |  -.0004426   .0001875    -2.36   0.018    -.0008101   -.0000751
    ctwitslg |   .1482904    .009564    15.50   0.000     .1295452    .1670356
       _cons |   -8.14298    .545275   -14.93   0.000      -9.2117   -7.074261
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |  -.7155115   .0629643                     -.8389191   -.5921038
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |    .488942   .0307859                      .4321774    .5531623
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 8
. nbreg ctgtd ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dla
> qu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 ddowk1 dkhsd1 dpakd1 dlabd1 dindd1 daidd1 dqabd1 pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice grai
> nindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2014 dayid ctgtdlg if gyear>=2004 & gyear
> <=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     32,136
                                                Wald chi2(53)     =    6189.62
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -15319.259               Pseudo R2         =     0.2688

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
       ctgtd |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |  -.0581812   .0379602    -1.53   0.125    -.1325817    .0162194
       dhm01 |  -.0124214    .053662    -0.23   0.817     -.117597    .0927541
       dhm07 |   -.047044   .0539495    -0.87   0.383     -.152783     .058695
       dhm09 |  -.0627966    .055893    -1.12   0.261    -.1723448    .0467516
       dhm11 |   .1240874   .0518577     2.39   0.017     .0224482    .2257267
       dhm12 |   .1234704   .0724313     1.70   0.088    -.0184924    .2654332
      dahny1 |   .0397411   .3395231     0.12   0.907     -.625712    .7051942
      ddoas1 |   .2493419   .2553269     0.98   0.329    -.2510896    .7497735
      dmanu1 |  -.7116266   .3091095    -2.30   0.021     -1.31747   -.1057832
      dmanh1 |  -.4057189   .2599969    -1.56   0.119    -.9153035    .1038657
      disam1 |    .252582   .1966632     1.28   0.199    -.1328708    .6380348
      dlyab1 |   .2722918   .2065513     1.32   0.187    -.1325413    .6771249
      dfdor1 |   .0136081   .1887248     0.07   0.943    -.3562857    .3835019
      dlaqh1 |   .1041804   .1870937     0.56   0.578    -.2625166    .4708773
      dlaqu1 |   .5886257   .2234508     2.63   0.008     .1506702    1.026581
      deidf3 |  -.7303516   .1666182    -4.38   0.000    -1.056917    -.403786
      ddoar1 |  -.5578337   .2662777    -2.09   0.036    -1.079728    -.035939
      deida4 |  -.3973421   .1711272    -2.32   0.020    -.7327453   -.0619389
      ddowk1 |  -.0727745   .0392347    -1.85   0.064    -.1496731    .0041242
      dkhsd1 |   -.203987   .3378731    -0.60   0.546    -.8662062    .4582322
      dpakd1 |  -.1308004   .2432906    -0.54   0.591    -.6076413    .3460404
      dlabd1 |   .0688338   .1888437     0.36   0.715    -.3012932    .4389607
      dindd1 |   .5563803   .2940108     1.89   0.058    -.0198703    1.132631
      daidd1 |   .2395595   .2623355     0.91   0.361    -.2746086    .7537276
      dqabd1 |  -.2292734   .2356141    -0.97   0.331    -.6910684    .2325217
  pakelect30 |   .3427215   .0739323     4.64   0.000     .1978168    .4876263
   uselect30 |  -.0890813   .0743492    -1.20   0.231    -.2348031    .0566404
    oilprice |  -.0032837   .0014049    -2.34   0.019    -.0060373   -.0005301
  grainindex |   .0007539   .0007297     1.03   0.302    -.0006764    .0021841
        temp |    .000369   .0024744     0.15   0.881    -.0044808    .0052187
        wesd |   .0025739   .0042078     0.61   0.541    -.0056733    .0108211
      precip |  -.0142322   .0042905    -3.32   0.001    -.0226414    -.005823
     tcloudc |   .0009021   .0007459     1.21   0.226    -.0005598    .0023641
 ctcoinactlg |   .0047139   .0022505     2.09   0.036      .000303    .0091248
     dproid2 |   4.407416   .2063185    21.36   0.000     4.003039    4.811793
     dproid3 |  -1.877502   .4922615    -3.81   0.000    -2.842316   -.9126869
     dproid4 |   3.950102   .2106878    18.75   0.000     3.537162    4.363043
     dproid5 |   .8395074   .2428265     3.46   0.001     .3635762    1.315439
     dproid6 |   2.343082   .2219994    10.55   0.000     1.907972    2.778193
     dproid7 |   4.198656   .2143268    19.59   0.000     3.778583    4.618729
     dproid8 |   3.719889   .2175759    17.10   0.000     3.293448     4.14633
       d2005 |   .3014953   .2081672     1.45   0.148    -.1065048    .7094955
       d2006 |   1.173093   .2203864     5.32   0.000     .7411438    1.605042
       d2007 |   1.671997   .2417637     6.92   0.000     1.198149    2.145845
       d2008 |   2.497665   .3042087     8.21   0.000     1.901427    3.093903
       d2009 |   2.728352   .3398047     8.03   0.000     2.062347    3.394357
       d2010 |    2.96785   .3977426     7.46   0.000     2.188289    3.747411
       d2011 |   3.447811   .4657871     7.40   0.000     2.534886    4.360737
       d2012 |   3.986793   .5237857     7.61   0.000     2.960192    5.013394
       d2013 |   4.274692    .572973     7.46   0.000     3.151686    5.397699
       d2014 |   4.411955   .6252801     7.06   0.000     3.186429    5.637482
       dayid |  -.0002625   .0001596    -1.65   0.100    -.0005752    .0000502
     ctgtdlg |   .0990721    .011396     8.69   0.000     .0767363    .1214078
       _cons |  -7.183895   .2747553   -26.15   0.000    -7.722406   -6.645385
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |    -.48483   .0719573                     -.6258639   -.3437962
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   .6158018   .0443115                      .5347992    .7090734
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 9
. nbreg ctpips ddowk6 dhm01 dhm07 dhm09 dhm11 dhm12 dahny1 ddoas1 dmanu1 dmanh1 disam1 dlyab1 dfdor1 dlaqh1 dl
> aqu1 deidf3 ddoar1 deida4 ddowk1 dkhsd1 dpakd1 dlabd1 dindd1 daidd1 dqabd1 pakelect30 uselect30 oilprice gra
> inindex temp wesd precip tcloudc ctcoinactlg dproid2-dproid8 d2005-d2014 dayid ctpipslg if gyear>=2004 & gye
> ar<=2014, robust nolog

Negative binomial regression                    Number of obs     =     32,136
                                                Wald chi2(53)     =    9927.67
Dispersion           = mean                     Prob > chi2       =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -21799.721               Pseudo R2         =     0.3241

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      ctpips |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ddowk6 |  -.0289214   .0255645    -1.13   0.258    -.0790268     .021184
       dhm01 |  -.1482295   .0371671    -3.99   0.000    -.2210756   -.0753834
       dhm07 |   .0339514   .0334557     1.01   0.310    -.0316205    .0995234
       dhm09 |   .0291528   .0364724     0.80   0.424    -.0423317    .1006373
       dhm11 |   .0524319   .0364617     1.44   0.150    -.0190317    .1238955
       dhm12 |  -.0828594   .0393447    -2.11   0.035    -.1599735   -.0057452
      dahny1 |   .0704244   .1516106     0.46   0.642    -.2267268    .3675757
      ddoas1 |  -.8622997   .2156997    -4.00   0.000    -1.285063    -.439536
      dmanu1 |  -.7636895   .3227261    -2.37   0.018    -1.396221    -.131158
      dmanh1 |  -.0920954   .1469721    -0.63   0.531    -.3801554    .1959647
      disam1 |  -.3004025    .182871    -1.64   0.100    -.6588232    .0580181
      dlyab1 |   .1042204   .1759144     0.59   0.554    -.2405656    .4490064
      dfdor1 |  -.3852496   .1945906    -1.98   0.048    -.7666402   -.0038591
      dlaqh1 |   .0428037   .1635029     0.26   0.793    -.2776561    .3632635
      dlaqu1 |   .2728284   .1663753     1.64   0.101    -.0532612    .5989179
      deidf3 |  -.3616683   .1224947    -2.95   0.003    -.6017536    -.121583
      ddoar1 |  -.2922978   .2137315    -1.37   0.171    -.7112038    .1266083
      deida4 |  -.2899719    .116599    -2.49   0.013    -.5185017    -.061442
      ddowk1 |   .0177503   .0239154     0.74   0.458     -.029123    .0646235
      dkhsd1 |    .193564   .1297444     1.49   0.136    -.0607303    .4478584
      dpakd1 |   .1030205    .156407     0.66   0.510    -.2035316    .4095727
      dlabd1 |  -.1247413   .1371254    -0.91   0.363    -.3935021    .1440195
      dindd1 |   .2478671   .1769283     1.40   0.161     -.098906    .5946401
      daidd1 |   .2711176   .1422859     1.91   0.057    -.0077577    .5499929
      dqabd1 |  -.0455056   .1669623    -0.27   0.785    -.3727457    .2817346
  pakelect30 |   .2310785   .0572655     4.04   0.000       .11884    .3433169
   uselect30 |  -.0728439   .0484826    -1.50   0.133     -.167868    .0221803
    oilprice |  -.0011533   .0008285    -1.39   0.164    -.0027771    .0004706
  grainindex |   .0002938   .0004285     0.69   0.493    -.0005462    .0011337
        temp |  -.0002437   .0016754    -0.15   0.884    -.0035274      .00304
        wesd |   .0009839   .0028001     0.35   0.725    -.0045043     .006472
      precip |  -.0059318   .0027956    -2.12   0.034    -.0114112   -.0004525
     tcloudc |   .0011329   .0004906     2.31   0.021     .0001713    .0020944
 ctcoinactlg |   .0069492   .0011553     6.02   0.000     .0046849    .0092135
     dproid2 |   3.844451   .1256609    30.59   0.000      3.59816    4.090741
     dproid3 |   .3504239   .1559905     2.25   0.025     .0446882    .6561597
     dproid4 |   3.735272   .1284654    29.08   0.000     3.483484    3.987059
     dproid5 |  -.2672262   .1788483    -1.49   0.135    -.6177625    .0833101
     dproid6 |   1.612774   .1395594    11.56   0.000     1.339243    1.886306
     dproid7 |   3.805038   .1312347    28.99   0.000     3.547823    4.062253
     dproid8 |   3.146952   .1331187    23.64   0.000     2.886044     3.40786
       d2005 |  -.0078893   .4352801    -0.02   0.986    -.8610226     .845244
       d2006 |    2.62712   .3211999     8.18   0.000     1.997579     3.25666
       d2007 |   4.398095   .3266011    13.47   0.000     3.757969    5.038222
       d2008 |   4.702156   .3454203    13.61   0.000     4.025144    5.379167
       d2009 |   4.766232   .3645157    13.08   0.000     4.051795     5.48067
       d2010 |   4.620137   .3879115    11.91   0.000     3.859845     5.38043
       d2011 |   4.524692   .4168928    10.85   0.000     3.707597    5.341787
       d2012 |   4.212386   .4453562     9.46   0.000     3.339504    5.085268
       d2013 |   4.231008   .4751053     8.91   0.000     3.299819    5.162198
       d2014 |   3.949292   .5063448     7.80   0.000     2.956874    4.941709
       dayid |   .0003011   .0001108     2.72   0.007     .0000839    .0005182
    ctpipslg |   .1210619   .0052114    23.23   0.000     .1108478    .1312759
       _cons |  -8.656185    .333563   -25.95   0.000    -9.309956   -8.002414
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    /lnalpha |  -1.430538   .0560499                     -1.540394   -1.320682
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       alpha |   .2391802    .013406                      .2142966    .2669531
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. 
. clear matrix

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\data\RRP-APSR-Replication-2017-04-04\RRP-APSR-ReplicationCode-Supp-2017-04-04.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   4 Apr 2017, 23:16:25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
